Table 1.
Priors for the parameters of the multinomial model for surveillance-aimed sepsis detection criteria.
| Criterion | Parameter | Description; Primary Prior |
Alternative Prior for Sensitivity Analysis 1 |
Alternative Prior for Sensitivity Analysis 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| True sepsis prevalence |
Prev | Mode = 0.05, 95% sure that mode < 0.25; Beta(1.71, 14.48) |
Non-informative;b Beta(1, 1) |
Identical to sensitivity analysis 1 for 2008, and elicited from previous year afterwards |
| Sepsis explicit codesa |
||||
| Se | Mode = 0.10, 95% sure that mode < 0.30; Beta(2.56, 15.03) |
Non-informative;b Beta(1, 1) |
Same as above | |
| Sp | Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.80; Beta(21.20, 2.06) |
Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.50; Beta(5.38, 1.49) |
Same as above | |
| Blood culture order |
||||
| Se | Mode = 0.90, 95% sure that mode > 0.70; Beta(15.03, 2.56) |
Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.50; Beta(5.38, 1.49) |
Same as above | |
| Sp | Mode = 0.90, 95% sure that mode > 0.70; Beta(15.03, 2.56) |
Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.50; Beta(5.38, 1.49) |
Same as above | |
| Antibiotics administration |
||||
| Se | Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.80; Beta(21.20, 2.06) |
Mode = 0.95, 95% sure that mode > 0.50; Beta(5.38, 1.49) |
Same as above | |
| Sp | Mode = 0.25, 95% sure that mode < 0.50; Beta(3.88, 9.63) |
Non-informative;b Beta(1, 1) |
Same as above |
Prev = prevalence; Se = sensitivity; Sp = specificity.
a
International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) diagnosis codes 995.92 or 785.52.
b
Every possible value of the parameter is equally likely.