Table 3.
Estimates of true prevalence and accuracy of surveillance-aimed sepsis detection criteria.
| Parameter | Year | Posterior Median (95% CI) Using Primary Priors |
Posterior Median (95% CI) Using Priors in Sensitivity Analysis 1 |
Posterior Median (95% CI) Using Priors in Sensitivity Analysis 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| True sepsis prevalence | ||||
| 2008 | 0.192 (0.179, 0.229) | 0.193 (0.178, 0.242) | 0.193 (0.178, 0.242) | |
| 2009 | 0.187 (0.176, 0.214) | 0.188 (0.175, 0.226) | 0.182 (0.176, 0.190) | |
| 2010 | 0.185 (0.174, 0.210) | 0.184 (0.172, 0.217) | 0.183 (0.175, 0.192) | |
| 2011 | 0.189 (0.176, 0.215) | 0.188 (0.175, 0.223) | 0.195 (0.185, 0.205) | |
| 2012 | 0.178 (0.168, 0.202) | 0.180 (0.167, 0.214) | 0.186 (0.177, 0.195) | |
| Sepsis explicit codesa Se |
||||
| 2008 | 0.076 (0.064, 0.084) | 0.076 (0.061, 0.084) | 0.076 (0.061, 0.084) | |
| 2009 | 0.076 (0.066, 0.083) | 0.075 (0.062, 0.083) | 0.078 (0.073, 0.083) | |
| 2010 | 0.085 (0.074, 0.092) | 0.085 (0.072, 0.093) | 0.083 (0.078, 0.088) | |
| 2011 | 0.112 (0.098, 0.121) | 0.112 (0.095, 0.121) | 0.102 (0.096, 0.108) | |
| 2012 | 0.138 (0.122, 0.149) | 0.138 (0.116, 0.149) | 0.128 (0.122, 0.136) | |
| Sepsis explicit codesa Sp |
||||
| 2008 | 0.999 (0.999, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.999, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.999, 1.000) | |
| 2009 | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.999, 1.000) | |
| 2010 | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | |
| 2011 | 0.999 (0.998, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.998, 1.000) | 1.000 (0.999, 1.000) | |
| 2012 | 0.999 (0.998, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.998, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.999, 1.000) | |
| Blood culture order criterion Se |
||||
| 2008 | 0.960 (0.935, 0.989) | 0.960 (0.935, 0.994) | 0.960 (0.935, 0.994) | |
| 2009 | 0.965 (0.941, 0.990) | 0.963 (0.940, 0.994) | 0.961 (0.945, 0.978) | |
| 2010 | 0.959 (0.934, 0.989) | 0.957 (0.932, 0.993) | 0.961 (0.941, 0.979) | |
| 2011 | 0.954 (0.927, 0.988) | 0.952 (0.925, 0.993) | 0.954 (0.932, 0.975) | |
| 2012 | 0.957 (0.933, 0.989) | 0.953 (0.930, 0.992) | 0.950 (0.933, 0.970) | |
| Blood culture order criterion Sp |
||||
| 2008 | 0.925 (0.914, 0.966) | 0.926 (0.913, 0.983) | 0.926 (0.913, 0.983) | |
| 2009 | 0.940 (0.931, 0.971) | 0.941 (0.930, 0.986) | 0.934 (0.929, 0.941) | |
| 2010 | 0.949 (0.940, 0.977) | 0.947 (0.939, 0.985) | 0.946 (0.940, 0.955) | |
| 2011 | 0.947 (0.938, 0.977) | 0.947 (0.938, 0.987) | 0.955 (0.945, 0.964) | |
| 2012 | 0.948 (0.939, 0.975) | 0.949 (0.939, 0.988) | 0.955 (0.945, 0.964) | |
| Antibiotics administration criterion Se |
||||
| 2008 | 0.978 (0.911, 0.999) | 0.977 (0.891, 0.999) | 0.977 (0.891, 0.999) | |
| 2009 | 0.978 (0.921, 0.998) | 0.977 (0.896, 0.999) | 0.992 (0.975, 0.999) | |
| 2010 | 0.979 (0.921, 0.999) | 0.983 (0.908, 1.000) | 0.984 (0.963, 0.998) | |
| 2011 | 0.978 (0.918, 0.999) | 0.980 (0.901, 0.999) | 0.961 (0.941, 0.985) | |
| 2012 | 0.978 (0.918, 0.998) | 0.976 (0.894, 0.998) | 0.960 (0.939, 0.985) | |
| Antibiotics administration criterion Sp |
||||
| 2008 | 0.446 (0.440, 0.452) | 0.446 (0.440, 0.452) | 0.446 (0.440, 0.452) | |
| 2009 | 0.481 (0.476, 0.487) | 0.482 (0.476, 0.487) | 0.480 (0.475, 0.485) | |
| 2010 | 0.511 (0.505, 0.516) | 0.511 (0.505, 0.517) | 0.509 (0.504, 0.514) | |
| 2011 | 0.520 (0.514, 0.526) | 0.520 (0.514, 0.527) | 0.520 (0.515, 0.526) | |
| 2012 | 0.529 (0.523, 0.535) | 0.530 (0.523, 0.536) | 0.530 (0.525, 0.535) |
CI = Credible interval; Se = sensitivity; Sp = specificity.
a
International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) diagnosis codes 995.92 or 785.52.