Table 3.
Part A: Logistic Regression, all patients | Odds Ratio (95%CI) | P | AUC | Rescaled R2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate models (150 cases / 150 controls) | |||||||
log2 solCD44 | 2.036 (1.552, 2.671) | <.0001 | 0.681 | 0.137 | |||
Protein | 2.159 (1.288, 3.617) | 0.003 | 0.590 | 0.042 | |||
Multivariable model 1(149 cases/148 controls) | |||||||
log2 solCD44 | 2.684 (1.797, 4.010) | <.0001 | 0.763 | 0.276 | |||
Protein | 0.646 (0.301, 1.386) | 0.262 | |||||
Part B: Logistic Regression stratified by HPV status | |||||||
HPV negative (48 cases / 150 controls) | |||||||
Univariate | |||||||
Log2 solCD44 | 2.311 (1.561, 3.422) | <.0001 | 0.689 | 0.146 | |||
Protein | 1.838 (0.888, 3.807) | 0.101 | 0.562 | 0.020 | |||
Multivariable model2 (48 cases / 148 controls): | |||||||
log2 solCD44 | 4.017 (2.124, 7.597) | <.0001 | 0.771 | 0.275 | |||
Protein | 0.179 (0.052, 0.620) | 0.006 | |||||
HPV positive (31 cases / 150 controls) | |||||||
Univariate | |||||||
Log2 solCD44 | 2.001 (1.291, 3.102) | 0.002 | 0.667 | 0.096 | |||
Protein | 1.882 (0.789, 4.492) | 0.154 | 0.567 | 0.018 | |||
Multivariable model 3 (148 controls): | |||||||
log2 solCD44 | 3.079 (1.486, 6.378) | 0.003 | 0.773 | 0.221 | |||
Protein | 0.384 (0.080, 1.833) | 0.230 | |||||
Part C: Logistic Regression Analysis of Risk Groups derived by Multivariate Recursive Partitioning Univariate Model4 of Risk Groups based on CD44 and protein levels | |||||||
Risk Level (n = case + control) |
SolCD44(ng/ml) (level description) |
Protein (mg/ml) |
Odds Ratio (95%CI) | Prediction | P | AUC |
Rescaled R2 |
Low (102 = 29 + 73) |
<2.22 (low) |
<1.23 (low-medium) |
Reference | Control | 0.722 | 0.227 | |
Medium (116 = 54 + 62) |
≥2.22 & <5.33 (medium) |
≥0.558 (medium-high) |
2.192 (1.247, 3.854) | Control | 0.006 | ||
High (5 = 4 + 1) |
<2.22 (low) |
≥1.23 (high) |
10.069 (1.079, 93.93) | Case | 0.043 | ||
High (20 = 16 + 4) |
≥2.22 & <5.33 (medium) |
<0.558 (low) |
10.069 (3.103, 32.672) | Case | 0.0001 | ||
High (57 = 47 + 10) |
≥5.33 (high) |
-- | 11.830 (5.279, 26.508) | Case | <.0001 | ||
Multivariable Model5 of Risk Groups based on CD44 and protein levels | |||||||
Risk Level (n) | SolCD44 | Protein | Odds Ratio (95%CI) | Prediction | P | AUC |
Rescaled R2 |
Low (102) |
<2.22 (low) |
<1.23 (low-medium) |
Reference | Control | 0.790 | 0.325 | |
Medium (116) |
≥2.22 & <5.33 (medium) |
≥0.558 (medium-high) |
2.755 (1.483, 5.117) | Control | 0.001 | ||
High (5) |
<2.22 (low) |
≥1.23 (high) |
5.905 (0.591, 59.053) | Case | 0.131 | ||
High (20) |
≥2.22 & <5.33 (medium) |
<0.558 (low) |
11.860 (3.312, 42.472) | Case | <.0001 | ||
High (57) |
≥5.33 (high) |
-- | 14.489 (5.973, 35.145) | Case | <.0001 | ||
SES High vs. low | 0.577 (0.304, 1.094) | 0.092 | |||||
White Non-Hispanic vs Black at age <60 | 7.885 (2.372, 26.206) | ||||||
White Hispanic vs Black at age <60 | 1.767 (0.636, 4.907) | ||||||
White Non-Hispanic vs Black at age ≥60 | 0.799 (0.216, 2.956) | ||||||
White Hispanic vs Black at age ≥60 | 0.382 (0.124, 1.175) | ||||||
Age ≥60 vs <60 in Black | 3.099 (0.838, 11.457) | ||||||
Age ≥60 vs <60 in White Non-Hispanic | 0.314 (0.111, 0.892) | ||||||
Age ≥60 vs <60 in White Hispanic | 0.669 (0.324, 1.383) | ||||||
Alcohol Ever vs Never in Male | 1.615 (0.713, 3.660) | ||||||
Alcohol Ever vs Never in Female | 0.202 (0.056, 0.726) | ||||||
Male vs Female in alcohol=Never | 0.216 (0.062, 0.757) | ||||||
Male vs Female in alcohol=Ever | 1.723 (0.695, 4.273) |
AUC: area under the ROC curve. Rescaled R2: coefficient of determination measured the dispersion explained by model. Odds ratios: 1-unit increase for continuous variables log2 CD44, protein, and age, unless specified categories; race/ethnicity (WNH and Black vs. WH), gender (Male v. Female), smoking and alcohol (Ever v. Never), and SES (high vs. low).
Adjusted for age (p=0.132), race/ethnicity (p=0.004), age×race/ethnicity (p=0.006), gender (p=0.030), alcohol (p=0.032), gender×alcohol (p=0.020), smoking (p=0.527), and SES (p=0.042). Model “markers + covariates” (AUC=0.763) provided significantly better prediction than the reduced model excluding both markers (AUC=0.686) and only including potential risk factors (p=0.003), indicating that the markers aid prediction over and above prediction provided by knowledge of risk factors.
Adjusted for age (p=0.020), gender (p=0.009), age×gender (p=0.008), race/ethnicity (p=0.740), alcohol (p=0.183), smoking (p=0.487), and SES (p=0.047).
Adjusted for age (p=0.052), gender (p=0.104), age ×gender (p=0.096), race/ethnicity (p=0.298), alcohol (p=0.537), smoking (p=0.131), and SES (p=0.070).
AUC=0.722 for risk group model (based on CD44 and protein) is significantly different from AUC =0.681 for univariate model log2 solCD44 (p=0.025).
Logistic regression model included CD44-protein risk groups (5 categories, p<0.0001), age (≥60 vs. <60, p=0.090), gender (p=0.017), race/ethnicity (p=0.001), alcohol (p=0.014), SES (p=0.092), and interaction age×race/ethnicity (p=0.029) and gender×alcohol (p=0.007). Smoking (ever vs. never, p=0.700) and teeth removed (6 or more or all vs. 5 or less, p=0.485) were tested for inclusion into model (AUC=0.791); they were removed since their inclusion did not improve model fit.