Table 3. Annual transition probabilities used in the model (Unit: %).

Parameter	Baseline	Range	Sources
Perinatal infection to
Immune tolerance / Inactive state	89	80–90	[15][32]
Immune tolerance / Inactive state to
Chronic hepatitis
<25 years	0.43	0.3–0.65	[11]
≥25 years	3	2.9–7.3	[11]
Chronic hepatitis to
Immune tolerance / Inactive state
<25 years	9	0–16.3	[11]
≥25 years	10	8.3–16.3	[11]
Compensated cirrhosis
<25 years	0.065	0.01–0.12	[11]
≥25 years	1.5	1–5.7	[11]
HCC	0.5	0.2–1	[15][33]
Disease-related death	0.9	0.3–3.6	[15][33]
Compensated cirrhosis to
Decompensated cirrhosis	5.4	2.8–15	[15][33]
HCC	3.3	0.5–6.6	[15][33]
Disease-related death	3.5	0–8	[13][15]
Decompensated cirrhosis to
HCC	7.1	0.15–10	[13][15][33]
Disease-related death	15	9.9–50	[15][33]
HCC to
Disease-related death	54	8.1–70	[15][33]

HCC, Hepatocellular carcinoma