Table 2. Cox regression lung cancer prediction models from MD Anderson and MJ group Integrative Risk Assessment (MMIRA) in overall, never smokers, light smokers, and heavy smokers.
| AUC | Overall | Never Smokers | Light Smokers | Heavy Smokers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.851 | 0.806 | 0.847 | 0.732 | ||
| Variables | HR(95% CI) | HR(95% CI) | HR(95% CI) | HR(95% CI) | |
| Age | 1.07(1.07–1.08) | 1.07(1.06–1.08) | 1.08(1.07–1.10) | 1.08(1.07–1.09) | |
| Sex | Male | 0.88(0.74–1.04) | 0.71(0.58–0.87) | 1.58(0.91–2.77) | 1.11(0.71–1.74) |
| Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Smoking | Never | 1.00 | |||
| <30 pack-year | 1.14(0.92–1.42) | ||||
| ≥30 pack-year | 2.60(2.15–3.14) | ||||
| Smoking status | Former | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Current | 1.64(1.08–2.48) | 1.48(1.16–1.89) | |||
| Smoking pack year | <15 | 1.00 | |||
| 15~30 | 1.44(1.03–2.02) | ||||
| Smoking intensity | <1 | 1.00 | |||
| (pack/per day) | ≥1 | 1.46(1.20–1.79) | |||
| BMI | <25 | 2.11(1.35–3.30) | 1.91(1.13–3.20) | 2.48(1.11–5.58) | |
| (kg/m2) | 25–29.9 | 1.79(1.13–2.83) | 1.55(0.91–2.64) | 2.02(0.89–4.59) | |
| ≥30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Family history of lung cancer | No | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Yes | 1.44(1.08–1.94) | 1.66(1.13–2.45) | 2.00(1.05–3.81) | ||
| Personal cancer history | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 1.55(1.02–2.34) | ||||
| Bilirubin (mg/dl) | Male:≤0.68; Female:≤0.56 | 1.16(0.96–1.40) | |||
| Male:0.69–0.87; Female:0.57–0.70 | 1.06(0.88–1.29) | ||||
| Male:0.88–1.11; Female:0.71–0.90 | 1.08(0.89–1.31) | ||||
| Male:≥1.12; Female:≥0.91 | 1.00 | ||||
| AFP (ng/ml) | <1.8 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| ≥1.8 | 1.35(1.08–1.69) | 1.37(1.05–1.80) | 2.12(1.03–4.33) | ||
| MMEF (ml/sec) | 0–48 | 2.00(1.58–2.52) | 1.87(1.36–2.57) | 2.06(1.47–2.87) | |
| 49–54 | 1.64(1.20–2.26) | 1.46(0.93–2.29) | 1.71(1.10–2.67) | ||
| 55–77 | 1.49(1.22–1.82) | 1.24(0.96–1.60) | 1.63(1.19–2.22) | ||
| 78–103 | 1.41(1.16–1.71) | 1.19(0.93–1.51) | 1.33(0.96–1.83) | ||
| >103 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| CEA (ng/ml) | <1.5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1.5–2.5 | 1.30(1.09–1.56) | 1.24(0.99–1.55) | 1.45(0.92–2.28) | 1.15(0.83–1.59) | |
| 2.6–4.2 | 1.64(1.35–1.99) | 1.82(1.40–2.36) | 1.88(1.18–3.01) | 1.25(0.91–1.72) | |
| 4.3–7.0 | 2.26(1.79–2.86) | 1.76(1.14–2.71) | 2.16(1.20–3.89) | 1.79(1.27–2.52) | |
| >7.0 | 5.70(4.39–7.41) | 12.82(9.10–18.07) | 5.29(2.55–10.95) | 2.55(1.70–3.83) | |
| CRP (mg/L) | 0–1 | 1.00 | |||
| 1.1–3 | 1.02(0.87–1.20) | ||||
| 3.1–10 | 0.96(0.78–1.17) | ||||
| >10 | 1.38(1.07–1.78) |
BMI = Body mass index. AFP = alpha-fetoprotein. MMEF = maximum midexpiratory flow. CEA = carcinoembryonic antigen. CRP = C-reactive protein.