Figure 1.

Structure and flow of methods used to estimate extinction risk from future climate change for frogs in the Australian Wet Tropics. Bioclimatic envelope models were used to project changing suitability surfaces for 24 frog species and six vegetation groups between 2010 and 2080. These projections were combined with (i) species–area relationship (SAR) models, with and without matrix calibration, to predict the number of species committed to extinction due to climate change and (ii) metapopulation (niche-population) models to calculate the number of eventual (realized) extinctions due to climate change.