Table 1.

Forecast extinction risk for frogs in the Australian wet tropics. Forecast number of extinctions and per cent decline in expected minimum abundance (change in EMA relative to 2080) in 2080, 2150 and 2200 using niche-population models (NPM). Forecast number of species committed (comm.) to extinction for 2080 using species–area relationships, with matrix calibration (MC-SAR) and without (SAR). Forecasts are for business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and policy-based-intervention (RCP4.5) greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. Numbers in brackets are ±1 s.d., reflecting uncertainty due to demographic-based parameter estimates. EMA is a continuous metric integrating the risks of declines and extinction risk. The uncertainty bounds for change in EMA are calculated based on change from ±1 s.d. in EMA in 2080. Note that mean prediction error for the fit of the SAR model to the observed relationship between species richness and rainforest area was ±3 species (see electronic supplementary material, Methods).

model	metric	RCP8.5			RCP4.5
		2080	2150	2200	2080	2150	2200
NPM
	extinctions	4 (3–5)	6 (3–9)	7 (2–12)	1 (0–2)	2 (0–6)	4 (0–9)
	change in EMA	—	20 (8–55)	25 (10–69)	—	9 (4–34)	13 (5–47)
MC-SAR
	comm. to extinction	5	—	—	3	—	—
SAR
	comm. to extinction	9	—	—	5	—	—