Table 3.
Incident Metabolic Syndrome ORs and 95% Confidence Intervals From Logistic Regression by Obesity Exposure Status Among MESA Participants With Measured Obesity at Any Visit
| Obesity Exposure | Model |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Across Completed Follow-Up | Repeated Measuresa | Mixed Effectsb | |
| Cumulative Exposure to Obesity (n = 1362) | |||
| Severity (obesity level) | |||
| I | 1.0 (Ref) | 1.0 (Ref) | 1.0 (Ref) |
| II | 1.27 (0.94–1.71) | 1.32 (1.09–1.60) | 1.46 (1.07–2.00) |
| III | 1.44 (1.10–2.33) | 1.63 (1.25–2.14) | 2.06 (1.28–3.29) |
| P for trend | .010 | <.001 | .001 |
| Duration (number of visits with obesity) | |||
| 1 | 1.0 (Ref) | 1.0 (Ref) | 1.0 (Ref) |
| 2 | 1.80 (1.04–3.13) | 4.43 (3.54–5.53) | 10.23 (7.15–14.6) |
| 3 | 1.92 (1.13–3.24) | 5.29 (4.21–6.63) | 13.85 (9.50–20.2) |
| 4 | 2.53 (1.60–4.01) | 5.73 (4.52–7.27) | 16.10 (10.8–24.1) |
| 5 | 2.96 (1.93–4.54) | 6.15 (4.19–9.03) | 18.04 (9.51–34.2) |
| P for trend | <.001 | <.001 | <.001 |
| Random intercept variance (σ2) | NA | NA | 1.62 (1.38–1.86) |
| Intraclass correlation (ρ) | NA | NA | 0.61 (0.55–0.66) |
All models include age, sex, race/ethnicity, and repeated measures models include an indicator variable for visit 5. Obesity level I: BMI 30.0–34.9; level II: BMI 35.0–39.9; and level III: BMI 40.0+. Metabolic syndrome is defined as 2 or more of the following: Triglyceride level ≥150 mg/dl; HDL cholesterol <40 mg/dl in men and <50 mg/dl in women; systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic BP ≥8 5mm Hg or use of blood pressure medications; rasting glucose ≥110 mg/dl or diagnoses of diabetes. Bold indicates estimates differ statistically from the reference category at the P < .05 level.
Abbreviations: NA, not available; Ref, reference.
Population averaged estimates from generalized estimating equations model.
Fixed and random effects estimates from mixed effects model.