Table 2.
Projected burden and informal caregiving for people living with dementia, Canada, 2011 to 2031
| 2011 | Baseline scenario, 2031 | Decreased dementia mortalitya, 2031 | Delayed incidenceb, 2031 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Ratio | Estimate | Ratio | Estimate | Ratio | ||
| Number of people with dementia | 340,000 | 674,000 | 1.98 | 709,000 | 2.09 | 374,000 | 1.10 |
| Deaths | 50,000 | 85,000 | 1.70 | 83,000 | 1.66 | 52,000 | 1.04 |
| Mortality rate (deaths/1000) | 146 | 126 | 0.86 | 118 | 0.81 | 138 | 0.95 |
| Years of life lost | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.96 | 2.9 | 0.86 | 2.9 | 0.87 |
| Health-adjusted years of life lost | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.98 | 3.2 | 0.97 | 2.9 | 0.88 |
| Informal care | |||||||
| People receiving care | 261,000 | 522,000 | 2.00 | 552,000 | 2.11 | 291,000 | 1.11 |
| Hours per year (millions) | 1,000 | 2,000 | 2,100 | 2,100 | 1.13 | 1,130 | 1.13 |
| Hours per year (per person age 25 to 65 years) | 52.3 | 100.4 | 106.5 | 106.5 | 1.08 | 56.6 | 1.08 |
| Receiving no care (%) | 23.2 | 22.5 | 0.97 | 22.2 | 0.96 | 22.0 | 0.95 |
| Less than 7 h/week (%) | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.34 | <0.1 | 1.28 | <0.1 | 1.03 |
| 7 to 14 h/week (%) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.02 | 0.1 | 0.97 | <0.1 | 0.77 |
| 15 to 70 h/week (%) | 26.5 | 26.3 | 0.99 | 26.0 | 0.98 | 24.3 | 0.92 |
| 71 or more hours/week (%) | 50.3 | 51.1 | 1.02 | 51.7 | 1.03 | 53.6 | 1.07 |
a10% lower mortality hazard among those with dementia, relative to baseline relative mortality hazard
bDelay age-specific incidence of dementia by 5 years, relative to baseline incidence rates