Table 3.
Projected home-based care costs (in cash) for ADL disabled elders, and home-based care workdays delivered by family members for disabled elders, under the Medium scenario, 2010–2050
| % of total home-based care costs (in cash) for disabled elders among national GDP | Home-based care workdays for disabled elders delivered by family members (in millions) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| year | Home-based care costs grow at the same rate of GDP growth | Home-based care costs growth rates estimated by time series analysis | Aged 65–79 | Aged 80+ | subtotal |
| 2010 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1,210 | 1,128 | 2,338 |
| 2020 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1,795 | 1,740 | 3,535 |
| 2030 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 2,694 | 2,646 | 5,340 |
| 2040 | 0.88 | 1.16 | 3,747 | 4,413 | 8,160 |
| 2050 | 1.18 | 1.58 | 3,505 | 7,494 | 11,000 |
| 2010–30 annual growth rate % | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 2030–50 annual growth rate % | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| 2010–50 annual growth rate % | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Ratio of # in 2030 to 2010 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Ratio of # in 2050 to 2010 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 4.7 |