Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis of the impacts of future changes in the mortality rate and prevalence of ADL disability on home-based care needs/costs for the elderly
| year | High(a) vs. medium scenarios: impact of mortality rates declining more rapidly | High(b) vs. high(a) scenarios: Impact of ADL disability deteriorating | Low vs. medium scenarios: Impact of ADL disability improving | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of disabled elders | Care costs in cash | Opportunity costs | # of disabled elders | Care costs in cash | Opportunity costs | # of disabled elders | Care costs in cash | Opportunity costs | |
| 2020 | +8.36% | +6.17% | +9.24% | +6.09% | +5.23% | +6.08% | −5.75% | −4.84% | −5.75% |
| 2030 | +14.97% | +11.88% | +16.56% | +14.23% | +12.57% | +14.20% | −12.54% | −10.85% | −12.60% |
| 2040 | +22.94% | +18.87% | +25.19% | +19.52% | +17.68% | +19.40% | −16.74% | −14.81% | −16.78% |
| 2050 | +34.56% | +29.61% | +37.69% | +23.18% | +21.40% | +22.92% | −19.74% | −17.83% | −19.75% |