Table 3.
Mean number of infections per year per 100,000 inhabitants
| Country | Original demography and contact matrix | Demography of Finland | Contact matrix of Belgium | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No vacc. | Original vacc. | Unified vacc. | No vacc. | Unified vacc. | No vacc. | Unified vacc. | |
| Belgium | 29,194 | 24,391 (−16.5 %) | 24,301 (−16.8 %) | 28,799 | 23,566 (−18.2 %) | 29,194 | 24,301 (−16.8 %) |
| Finland | 26,675 | 23,002 (−13.8 %) | 22,270 (−16.5 %) | 26,675 | 22,270 (−16.5 %) | 28,799 | 23,566 (−18.2 %) |
| Germany | 20,984 | 13,263 (−36.8 %) | 14,795 (−29.5 %) | 24,893 | 19,174 (−23.0 %) | 27,249 | 21,327 (−21.7 %) |
| Great Britain | 28,952 | 23,617 (−18.4 %) | 24,480 (−15.4 %) | 27,975 | 23,121 (−17.4 %) | 29,474 | 24,552 (−16.7 %) |
| Italy | 31,322 | 27,643 (−11.7 %) | 28,238 (−9.8 %) | 31,997 | 28,880 (−9.7 %) | 27,584 | 22,135 (−19.8 %) |
| Luxembourg | 31,216 | n.a. | 28,588 (−8.4 %) | 30,256 | 26,913 (−11.0 %) | 29,970 | 25,409 (−15.2 %) |
| Netherlands | 29,351 | 25,319 (−13.7 %) | 25,562 (−12.9 %) | 29,135 | 25,437 (−12.7 %) | 28,507 | 23,339 (−18.1 %) |
| Poland | 30,056 | 28,297 (−5.9 %) | 26,750 (−11.0 %) | 30,167 | 26,641 (−11.7 %) | 28,498 | 23,491 (−17.6 %) |
| CV | 11.8 % | 21.1 % | 18.1 % | 7.8 % | 12.6 % | 3.2 % | 5.6 % |
Mean number of infections per year per 100,000 inhabitants without or with vaccination, using either the country’s own combination of contact matrix and demography, or replacing the country’s contact matrix by the Belgian one, or replacing the country’s demography by the Finish one; “Original vacc.” denotes the vaccination coverage which actually is used in the different countries (unknown for Luxembourg); “Unified vacc.” uses the same vaccination strategy in every country (see text for details); trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is used before 2014; tetravalent influenza vaccine (QIV) is used from 2014 to 2033. Each cell gives the average result of 1000 simulations running from 2014 to 2033