Table 5.
Predicted AD progression over time (month 0–60) by group (control and hypothetical treatment cohorts) and by mortality scenario
| Proportion participants, at the end of month |
Life years (in state) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time point | Group | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Death | Group | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Death |
| Start Distribution | 69.50 | 30.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| Month 12 | C1 | 38.57 | 44.13 | 7.30 | 10.00 | C1 | 54.04 | 37.31 | 3.65 | 5.00 |
| T1 | 48.49 | 37.08 | 4.43 | 10.00 | T1 | 58.99 | 33.79 | 2.21 | 5.00 | |
| C2 | 40.50 | 37.83 | 4.22 | 17.45 | C2 | 55.00 | 34.16 | 2.11 | 8.73 | |
| T2 | 50.91 | 31.95 | 2.56 | 14.58 | T2 | 60.21 | 31.22 | 1.28 | 7.29 | |
| Month 24 | C1 | 22.46 | 42.56 | 15.98 | 19.00 | C1 | 30.52 | 43.35 | 11.64 | 14.50 |
| T1 | 27.64 | 41.24 | 12.12 | 19.00 | T1 | 38.06 | 39.16 | 8.28 | 14.50 | |
| C2 | 24.06 | 33.31 | 7.25 | 35.38 | C2 | 32.28 | 35.57 | 5.73 | 26.41 | |
| T2 | 29.85 | 33.10 | 5.71 | 31.34 | T2 | 40.38 | 32.52 | 4.14 | 22.96 | |
| Month 36 | C1 | 13.48 | 36.49 | 22.94 | 27.10 | C1 | 17.97 | 39.52 | 19.46 | 23.05 |
| T1 | 16.3 | 37.16 | 19.43 | 27.10 | T1 | 21.97 | 39.20 | 15.78 | 23.05 | |
| C2 | 14.42 | 25.98 | 8.19 | 51.41 | C2 | 19.24 | 29.65 | 7.72 | 43.39 | |
| T2 | 17.7 | 27.54 | 7.40 | 47.31 | T2 | 23.80 | 30.32 | 6.56 | 39.32 | |
| Month 48 | C1 | 8.33 | 29.75 | 27.53 | 34.39 | C1 | 10.90 | 33.12 | 25.24 | 30.75 |
| T1 | 9.9 | 30.98 | 24.71 | 34.39 | T1 | 13.12 | 34.07 | 22.07 | 30.75 | |
| C2 | 8.74 | 19.00 | 7.69 | 64.58 | C2 | 11.58 | 22.49 | 7.94 | 57.99 | |
| T2 | 10.7 | 20.86 | 7.50 | 60.97 | T2 | 14.21 | 24.20 | 7.45 | 54.14 | |
| Month 60 | C1 | 5.26 | 21.98 | 31.81 | 40.95 | C1 | 6.80 | 25.86 | 29.67 | 37.67 |
| T1 | 6.17 | 23.16 | 29.72 | 40.95 | T1 | 8.05 | 27.07 | 27.21 | 37.67 | |
| C2 | 5.33 | 12.79 | 6.90 | 74.98 | C2 | 7.03 | 15.90 | 7.29 | 69.78 | |
| T2 | 6.47 | 14.36 | 7.10 | 72.08 | T2 | 8.57 | 17.61 | 7.30 | 66.52 | |
| Total life years | ||||||||||
| C1 | 120.22 | 179.16 | 89.65 | 110.97 | ||||||
| T1 | 140.19 | 173.29 | 75.55 | 110.97 | ||||||
| C2 | 125.14 | 137.77 | 30.79 | 206.30 | ||||||
| T2 | 147.16 | 135.88 | 26.72 | 190.23 | ||||||
NOTE. Group specifications are as follows: C1 = Control group 1, no treatment effect, 10% constant mortality rate; T1 = Treatment group 1, 20% (20 per 100) receiving treatment effect, 10% constant mortality rate; C2 = Control group 2, no treatment effect and variable mortality by severity of AD; T2 = Treatment group 2, 20% (20 per 100) receiving treatment effect, and variable mortality by severity of AD.
The variable annual mortality rates by AD severity at 5.5% Mild, 21.5% Moderate and 48% Severe (Spackman et al [27]).
The simulated treatment effect adjusts progression in year 1 to reflect 20 persons expected to move to a worse health state remain in their starting state (i.e. 20% of participants receive a treatment effect).