Fig 7. Coalitions between political groups in terms of RCVs as measured by ERGM.

There are 36 possible pairwise coalitions of the nine groups. The coefficients of 0 indicate baseline, i.e., an even chance (0.5) of the two groups to co-vote together. For most group pairs, the probability to co-vote is lower than the chance: log-odds of −1 correspond to the probability of 0.27, log-odds of −2 to the probability of 0.12, and log-odds of −3 to the probability of 0.05. Note that ERGM does take abstentions into account, and therefore the baseline of co-voting by chance is considerably higher than for Alpha.