Table 1.
Key Model Parameters and Background Data by Country
| Parameter | Bangladesh | Nigeria | Brazil | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | ||||
| Live births, No. (latest year available) [7] | 2 933 000 (2012) | 1 807 025 (2007) | 2 832 590 (2013) | NA |
| Infant mortality rate, deaths/1000 live births, 2014 [8] | 32.1 | 71.5 | 14.4 | NA |
| Neonatal mortality rate, deaths/1000 live births, 2014 [8] | 24.2 | 35 | 9.6 | NA |
| Life expectancy at birth, y (range) [9] | 71.0 (69.0–72.9) | 52.3 (50.2–53.7) | 74.1 (72.6–75.4) | Uniform |
| Discounted life expectancy at birth, 3% discount rate (range) [10] | 27.82 (27.3–28.3) | 22.94 (22.2–23.4) | 28.47 (28.2–28.7) | Uniform |
| Discounted life expectancy at birth, 5% discount rate (range) [10] | 18.39 (18.1–18.6) | 15.78 (15.3–16.1) | 18.75 (18.6–18.9) | Uniform |
| GDP per capita, 2014 [11] | $1086.80 | $3203.30 | $11384.40 | NA |
| Pertussis mortality | ||||
| Probability of death from pertussis, first year of life (see Methods) | Ranged to determine mortality thresholds | Uniform | ||
| Pertussis deaths by age in first year, %, 2014 [12] | ||||
| 0–1 mo | 62.50 | Constant | ||
| 2–3 mo | 29.17 | Constant | ||
| 4–5 mo | 6.25 | Constant | ||
| 6–8 mo | 1.04 | Constant | ||
| 9–11 mo | 1.04 | Constant | ||
| Probability of death from other causes [8] | ||||
| 0–1 mo | 0.02492 | 0.03838 | 0.01004 | Constant |
| 2–3 mo | 0.00148 | 0.00700 | 0.00088 | Constant |
| 4–5 mo | 0.00148 | 0.00700 | 0.00088 | Constant |
| 6–8 mo | 0.00222 | 0.01048 | 0.00132 | Constant |
| 9–11 mo | 0.00222 | 0.01048 | 0.00132 | Constant |
| DTP vaccination by age and dose (see Methods) | ||||
| Probability of DTP1, if not received earlier | ||||
| 2–3 mo (SE) | 0.810 (0.010) | 0.340 (0.006) | 0.940 (0.002) | Beta |
| 4–5 mo (SE) | 0.737 (0.011) | 0.106 (0.004) | 0.360 (0.004) | Beta |
| 6–8 mo (SE) | 0.400 (0.012) | 0.068 (0.003) | 0.160 (0.003) | Beta |
| 9–11 mo (SE) | 0.200 (0.010) | 0.055 (0.003) | 0.040 (0.002) | Beta |
| Probability of DTP2, once DTP1 has been received | ||||
| 4–5 mo (SE) | 0.925 (0.007) | 0.821 (0.005) | 0.920 (0.002) | Beta |
| 6–8 mo (SE) | 0.636 (0.012) | 0.417 (0.006) | 0.790 (0.003) | Beta |
| 9–11 mo (SE) | 0.200 (0.010) | 0.300 (0.006) | 0.410 (0.004) | Beta |
| Probability of DTP3, once DTP2 has been received | ||||
| 6–8 mo (SE) | 0.924 (0.007) | 0.750 (0.006) | 0.940 (0.002) | Beta |
| 9–11 mo (SE) | 0.667 (0.012) | 0.417 (0.006) | 0.650 (0.004) | Beta |
| Infant vaccine efficacy [13] | ||||
| Efficacy in infants who received only 1 dose of wP vaccine (SE) | 0.68 (0.09) | Beta | ||
| Efficacy in infants who received 2 or 3 doses of wP vaccine (SE) | 0.95 (0.02) | Beta | ||
| Maternal vaccine efficacy (SE) [4] | 0.85 (0.03) | Beta | ||
| Maternal vaccine coverage | ||||
| At least 1 antenatal care visit, % (SE; year) [14, 15] | 78.6 (0.59; 2014) | 65.8 (0.33; 2013) | NA | Beta |
| Coverage of maternal Td/Tdap, Brazil, % (range), 2015 (see Methods) | NA | NA | 53.03 (40.3–60.2) | Beta |
| Maternal vaccine program costs | ||||
| Td plus monovalent aP vaccine, per dose, range (see Methods) | $0.50–$5.00 | $0.50–$5.00 | $4.00–$12.00 | Uniform |
| Incremental vaccine delivery cost per dose (see Methods) | $0 | NA | ||
| EPI vaccine infant program costs | ||||
| Pentavalent DTwP-HepB-Hib, per dose, 2016 (range) [16–19] | $2.23 ($1.40–$2.81) | $2.23 ($1.40–$2.81) | $2.30 ($2.19–$2.42) | Uniform |
| Incremental delivery cost per dose (range) [20–22] | $0.74 ($0.67–$0.81) | $5.83 ($5.25–$6.41) | $5.97 ($5.37–$6.57) | Uniform |
| Disease management costs | ||||
| Inpatient care, per day [23] | $5.70 | $25.83 | NA | NA |
| Length of hospital stay, d (see Methods) | 6.0–9.2 | NA | ||
| Total cost (range) | $43.30 ($34–$52) | $196.32 ($155–$238) | NA | Uniform |
| Hospital cost for infants who died of pertussis, Brazil (SE) [12] | NA | NA | $1124 ($185) | Gamma |
Source in brackets. All costs are in 2014 US dollars.
Abbreviations: aP, acellular pertussis; DTP, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis; DTwP, diphtheria-tetanus-whole cell pertussis; EPI, Expanded Programme on Immunization; GDP, gross domestic product; HepB, hepatitis B; Hib, Haemophilus influenzae type b; NA, not applicable; SE, standard error; Td, tetanus-diphtheria; Tdap, tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis; wP, whole-cell pertussis.