Table 2.

Calculation of the MM Index from Diagnoses of an 81-Year-Old Resident

DESCRIPTION OF DIAGNOSIS	LIKELIHOOD RATIO
(1) Malignant neoplasm of upper lobe, bronchus, or lobe	3.18
(2) Other specified chronic ischemic heart disease	1.41
(3) Abdominal aneurysm without mention of rupture	1.04
(4) Peripheral vascular disease, unspecified	0.96
(5) Chronic airway obstruction, not COPD, and not elsewhere classified	Not Found
(6) Chronic kidney disease, stage IV (severe)	1.45
(7) Secondary hyperparathyroidism of renal origin	1.03
(8) Anorexia	2.16
(9) Nausea and vomiting	1.02
(10) Cachexia	3.06
STEPS IN CALCULATION	RESULTS
MM Index (product of all likelihood ratios)	45.07
Prior odds for all residents	0.16
Posterior odds for this case (prior odds times MM Index)	7.21
Probability of Mortality (posterior odds divided by 1 plus posterior odds)	0.88