Table 1. Transition probabilities and healthcare costs.
| Variable | Base case | Standard Deviation (SD)* | Monte Carlo distribution type* | 2.5th/97.5th Percentile* | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stool DNA | |||||
| Sensitivity LGD | 0.41 | SD 0.018 | Beta | 0.38 / 0.45 | 14 |
| Sensitivity HGD | 0.69 | SD 0.072 | Beta | 0.56 / 0.85 | 14 |
| Sensitivity CRC | 0.92 | SD 0.35 | Beta | 0.84 / 0.98 | 14 |
| Specificity | 0.87 | SD 0.0036 | Beta | 0.86 / 0.87 | 14 |
| Ulcerative colitis | |||||
| % Adhering to surveillance | 0.5 | SD 0.11 | Beta | 0.28 / 0.71 | 10 |
| Age of UC diagnosis | 17 | ||||
| 10 years | 0.075 | - | - | - | 17 |
| 30 years | 0.354 | - | - | - | 17 |
| 50 years | 0.279 | - | - | - | 17 |
| 70 years | 0.238 | - | - | - | 17 |
| 90 years | 0.054 | - | - | - | 17 |
| Annual rate of CRC incidence by UC duration | |||||
| At 8th year | 0.0107 | - | Beta | 0.00045 – 0.044 | 18 |
| 9-15 years | 0.00135 | - | Beta | 0.000032 - 0.0046 | 18 |
| 16-20 years | 0.00205 | - | Beta | 0.000044 – 0.0089 | 18 |
| ≥21years | 0.00207 | Beta | 0.000067 – 0.0075 | 18 | |
| Probability CRC stage at diagnosis | |||||
| Surveillance | |||||
| Dukes A/B | 0.86 | 0.13 | Beta | 0.50 / 1.00 | 19 |
| Dukes C | 0.10 | 0.012 | Beta | 0.08 / 0.13 | 19 |
| Dukes D | 0.04 | 0.0065 | Beta | 0.03 / 0.06 | 19 |
| No Surveillance | |||||
| Dukes A/B | 0.47 | 0.071 | Beta | 0.33 / 0.60 | 19, 31 |
| Dukes C | 0.38 | 0.044 | Beta | 0.29 / 0.49 | 19, 31 |
| Dukes D | 0.15 | 0.024 | Beta | 0.11 / 0.20 | 19, 31 |
| Costs | |||||
| Annual care UC | $8,485 | $1,061 | Gamma | $6,326 / $11,048 | 20 |
| Stool DNA test | $599 | $75 | Gamma | $460 / $744 | CPT G0464 |
| CE with biopsies | $1,221 | $153 | Gamma | $932 / $1,589 | CPT 88305 CPT 45380 |
| WLE with biopsies | $1,405 | $177 | Gamma | $978 / $1714 | CPT 88305 CPT 45380 |
| Adverse event from colonoscopy | $7,075 | $2,653 | Gamma | $2,636 / $15,386 | 27 |
| Colectomy cost + 6 month postoperative care | $62,453 | $35,858 | Gamma | $17,004 / $153,379 | 32, 33 |
| Routine care with IPAA (annual) | $6,058 | $758 | Gamma | $4,540 / $7,238 | 20 |
| Cancer related expenses, initial | |||||
| Local | $48,945 | $6,115 | Gamma | $37,994 / $64,953 | 21, 22 |
| Regional | $64,746 | $8,091 | Gamma | $52,209 / $85,461 | 21, 22 |
| Distant | $64,384 | $8,046 | Gamma | $49,446 / $82,898 | 21, 22 |
| Cancer related expenses, continuing | |||||
| Local | $3,796 | $475 | Gamma | $3,126 / $4,799 | 21, 22 |
| Regional | $7,887 | $986 | Gamma | $6,078 / $9,916 | 21, 22 |
| Distant | $26,570 | $3,321 | Gamma | $19,531 / $33,248 | 21, 22 |
| Cancer related expenses, terminal | |||||
| Local | $20,453 | $2,556 | Gamma | $16,126 / $25,261 | 21, 22 |
| Regional | $36,509 | $4,562 | Gamma | $27,348 / $47,145 | 21, 22 |
| Distant | $49,792 | $6,223 | Gamma | $39,566 / $62,789 | 21, 22 |
*
Apply to probabilistic sensitivity analysis only
CE, chromoendoscopy; CRC, colorectal cancer; HGD, high-grade dysplasia; IPAA, ileal pouch anal anastomosis; LGD, low-grade dysplasia; SD, standard deviation; UC, ulcerative colitis; WLE, white light endoscopy
Please see Supplemental Table 1 for additional model inputs and distributions