Table 2.
Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values in percent (95 % confidence intervals) for CSF and MRI parameters regarding conversion of clinically isolated syndrome to definite multiple sclerosis
| Parameter | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barkhof | 24 (18.5–29.9) | 80 (70.4–90.3) | 81 | 23 |
| Swanton | 27 (21.5–33.3) | 79 (69.9–89.2) | 82 | 24 |
| Montalban | 15 (10.3–19.8) | 95 (89.8–100) | 92 | 24 |
| cell count (>4/µl) | 58 (51.3–64.5) | 55 (42.4–67.2) | 82 | 27 |
| OCB | 91 (87.1–94.7) | 21 (10.8–31.1) | 80 | 39 |
| Cell count and OCB | 57 (50.3–63.5) | 58 (45.8–70.3) | 83 | 28 |
| Barkhof and OCB | 21 (16.0–26.9) | 82 (72.7–91.8) | 81 | 23 |
| Swanton and OCB | 24 (18.1–29.4) | 81 (70.8–90.5) | 81 | 23 |
| Montalban and OCB | 13 (8.8–17.7) | 95 (89.8–100) | 91 | 24 |
Values are given for the comparison between the absence or presence of the regarding condition (e.g., OCBs-positive subjects compared to OCB-negative). Follow-up for non-converters had to be at least 24 months