Table S3.

Simulated downwind voyages arriving at central and eastern Micronesia from distinct origin sites

Origin	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
West Solomons	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	24% (36–181) [84]	17% (35–134) [76]	11% (47–195) [100]	11% (32–199) [92]	0%	0%
East Solomons	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1% (110) [110]	0%	0%
Vanuatu	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1% (111) [111]	1% (124) [124]	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fiji	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3% (97–173) [127]	14% (93–198) [124]	0%	0%	0%	0%

Month columns refer to start of simulated voyage. Percentage values refer to probability of crossing success. Numbers inside parenthesis provide the range, in days, of crossing duration, and number inside square bracket the average crossing duration, also in days. Simulated trips that resulted in no successful crossings are not shown.