Table 2.
Scenario results and percentage differences from baseline scenario in 2025
| 1. Baseline | 2A. Short-course regimen | 2B. Short-course, improved outcomes | 3. Decreased delays to detection | 4. Improved MDR-TB treatment outcomes | 5. Improved MDR-TB identification | 6. Increased MDR-TB treatment availability | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total incidencea | 77.2 | 71.1 | 69.4 | 65.6 | 73.9 | 80.2 | 73.3 |
| % change | −8.0% | −10.2% | −15.0% | −4.4% | +3.8% | −5.1% | |
| Total prevalenceb | 105.7 | 83.6 | 79.0 | 89.6 | 97.7 | 111.8 | 99.5 |
| % change | −20.9% | −25.2% | −15.2% | −7.5% | +5.8% | −5.8% | |
| Total mortalitya | 10.4 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 9.3 |
| % change | −16.6% | −25.9% | −16.6% | −12.7% | +7.3% | −10.2% | |
| MDR-TB incidencea | 15.2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 18.2 | 11.2 |
| % change | −36.0% | −42.8% | −4.3% | −19.6% | +19.8% | −26.4% | |
| MDR-TB prevalenceb | 63.0 | 40.8 | 36.1 | 61.6 | 55.0 | 69.2 | 56.7 |
| % change | −35.2% | −42.6% | −2.2% | −12.7% | +9.9% | −9.9% | |
| MDR-TB mortalitya | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| % change | −43.9% | −67.2% | −6.2% | −38.2% | +27.5% | −37.1% | |
| Proportion of incident cases MDR-TB | 34.8 | 28.9 | 27.1 | 40.1 | 31.7 | 37.3 | 31.2 |
| % change | −16.9% | −22.1% | +15.1% | −8.9% | +7.1% | −10.5% | |
| XDR-TB incidencea | 11.7 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| % change | −7.2% | −13.3% | +0.5% | −4.2% | −0.1% | −0.4% | |
| XDR-TB prevalenceb | 29.8 | 26.6 | 24.5 | 30.0 | 28.5 | 29.3 | 30.2 |
| % change | −10.8% | −17.7% | +0.5% | −4.4% | −1.6% | +1.2% | |
| XDR-TB mortalitya | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| % change | −10.5% | 17.2% | +0.5% | −4.3% | −1.6% | +1.2% | |
| Proportion of incident cases XDR-TB | 15.1 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 14.6 | 15.9 |
| % change | +0.8% | −3.5% | +18.2% | +0.1% | −3.8% | +5.0% |
aPer 100,000 population per year
bPer 100,000 population
MDR-TB Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, XDR-TB Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis