Table 1.

Best performing binomial models of each size with selected models in bold. See Table S2 for detailed descriptions of variables

Binomial
	Model	AIC	MLL	SE
Sandgate	Occurrence ~ ANOMtmn_18mo	62.79	0.57	0.14
	Occurrence ˜ ECBRR_3mo + ANOMtmn_18mo	46.36	0.35	0.12
	Occurrence ~ ECBRR_9mo + ANOMtmn_18mo + AVGtmx_1mo_15mo	40.05	0.38	0.13
	Occurrence ~ ECARR_9mo + ANOMtmn_18mo + PREC_9mo + PREC_18mo	33.49	0.22	0.13
	Occurrence ~ MSI_9mo + ANOMtmn_18mo + AVGtmx_1mo_15mo + PREC_9mo + PREC_18mo	29.70	0.26	0.31
Lowood	Occurrence ~ EWDI1_9mo	70.78	0.70	0.45
	Occurrence ~ ECARR + EWDI1_12mo	50.65	0.44	0.27
	Occurrence ˜ ECARR + EWDI1_12mo + NDVI_3mo	27.38	0.10	0.07
	Occurrence ~ ECBRR + ECBRR_3mo + EWDI1_9mo + EWDI1_18mo	10.00	0.00	0.00
	Occurrence ~ ECARR + ECARR_9mo + EWDI1_9mo + MSI_12mo + AVGtmx_1mo_9mo	12.00	8.46	3.56
Canungra	Occurrence ˜ ECARR_18mo	37.56	0.31	0.24
	Occurrence ~ NDVI_18mo + AVGtmn_1mo_3mo	28.57	0.31	0.31
	Occurrence ~ EWDI1_12mo + NDVI_18mo + AVGtmn_1mo_3mo	20.25	0.51	0.28
	Occurrence ~ ECBRR_18mo + ANOMtmn_3mo + AVGtmx_1mo_15mo + PREC_3mo	10.00	2.75	3.21
	Occurrence ~ ECBRR_18mo + ANOMtmn_3mo + ANOMtmx_3mo + AVGtmx_1mo_3mo + PREC_3mo	12.00	10.02	9.08