Appendix D.

Factors Predicting Substance Dependency (Dichotomous specification, n=1208)

	All					Male
	Marginal effect	Std. Err.	z	P>z		Marginal effect	Std. Err.	z	P>z
Female	−0.176	0.023	−10.82	0.000	***
Black	0.068	0.015	2.62	0.009	**	0.169	0.051	2.32	0.020	*
CPC preschool participation (ages 3-4)	0.005	0.014	0.36	0.722		0.006	0.035	0.16	0.869
Child protection services (ages 4-9)	0.061	0.030	2.41	0.016	*	0.109	0.070	1.63	0.102
Family conflict (ages 5-10)	0.127	0.046	3.44	0.001	**	0.213	0.086	2.64	0.008	**
CPC school age participation (ages 6-9)	−0.013	0.016	−0.81	0.416		−0.042	0.042	−1.00	0.318
Social maturity (ages 7-9)	−0.003	0.002	−1.44	0.149		−0.008	0.006	−1.44	0.151
Family risk (age 8)	0.000	0.004	−0.11	0.915		0.001	0.010	0.10	0.920
Parent expectations (ages 8-10)	−0.012	0.010	−1.1	0.270		−0.016	0.031	−0.51	0.613
Intrinsic motivation (ages 9-10)	−0.003	0.008	−0.39	0.696		−0.019	0.022	−0.86	0.387
Reading achievement (age 10)	0.000	0.000	−0.22	0.828		0.000	0.001	0.39	0.695
No trouble-making behavior (ages 9-12)	−0.017	0.005	−3.49	0.000	***	−0.034	0.012	−2.99	0.003	**
School quality (ages 10-14)	−0.056	0.020	−1.89	0.058		−0.119	0.063	−1.54	0.123
School mobility (ages 14-18)	0.027	0.014	1.95	0.051		0.074	0.035	2.06	0.040	*
Parent substance abuse experience (ages 10-15)	0.075	0.029	3.22	0.001	**	0.093	0.050	2.07	0.039	*
Deviant peer affiliation (age 16)	0.023	0.015	1.61	0.108		0.047	0.041	1.15	0.248
School dropout (by age 16)	0.017	0.024	0.74	0.459		0.018	0.045	0.39	0.693
Wald Chi-squared	1836.46					655.15
Prob. > Chi-squared	0.00					0.00
Pseudo R-squared	0.24					0.11

Note:

^***p<0.001

^**p<0.01

^*p<0.05.

Probit coefficients are transformed to quantify marginal effects of the selected independent variables on the probability of outcomes.