Table 1. Incidence age standardised rates (ASRs) per 100 000 15–90+ year olds, cases, total percentage changes and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for 1993 (observed), 2014 (observed) and 2035 (projected) by cancer site and sex.
1993 ASR | 2014 ASR | 2035 ASR | ASR % change 2014–2035 | ASR AAPC 2015–2035 | 1993 Cases | 2014 Cases | 2035 Cases | Cases % change 2014–2035 | Cases AAPC 2015–2035 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Males | ||||||||||
Cancer site | ||||||||||
Anus | 1.73 | 1.84 | 2.18 | 18.24 | 0.62 | 284 | 434 | 684.68 | 57.76 | 2.01 |
Bladder | 61.52 | 33.92 | 21.07 | −37.88 | −2.33 | 9705 | 7301 | 7531.11 | 3.15 | 0.16 |
Bone | 0.91 | 1.01 | 0.69 | −31.35 | −1.91 | 189 | 256 | 216.77 | −15.33 | −0.84 |
Bowel | 105.04 | 102.38 | 86.92 | −15.10 | −0.86 | 16 929 | 22 827 | 29 356.10 | 28.60 | 1.13 |
Brain | 17.41 | 21.08 | 22.11 | 4.87 | 0.14 | 3364 | 5036 | 6884.30 | 36.70 | 1.40 |
Hodgkin lymphoma | 3.50 | 4.48 | 4.87 | 8.86 | 0.52 | 810 | 1148 | 1479.68 | 28.89 | 1.27 |
Kidney | 19.12 | 34.18 | 43.88 | 28.38 | 1.08 | 3275 | 7778 | 14 258.84 | 83.32 | 2.75 |
Larynx | 10.91 | 8.36 | 6.52 | −22.04 | −1.19 | 1902 | 1920 | 2099.54 | 9.35 | 0.41 |
Leukaemia | 21.22 | 24.14 | 25.59 | 6.00 | 0.13 | 3461 | 5425 | 8714.08 | 60.63 | 2.11 |
Liver | 6.36 | 16.21 | 23.23 | 43.27 | 1.41 | 1043 | 3636 | 7769.55 | 113.68 | 3.28 |
Lung | 167.74 | 112.25 | 97.06 | −13.54 | −0.70 | 27 112 | 24 767 | 32 874.81 | 32.74 | 1.34 |
Malignant melanoma | 11.99 | 33.28 | 35.42 | 6.46 | 0.26 | 2248 | 7715 | 11 897.43 | 54.21 | 2.03 |
Mesothelioma | 6.05 | 10.54 | 4.75 | −54.98 | −4.07 | 1051 | 2289 | 1753.23 | −23.41 | −1.42 |
Myeloma | 10.93 | 13.76 | 15.52 | 12.76 | 0.39 | 1729 | 3072 | 5228.66 | 70.20 | 2.35 |
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma | 23.02 | 32.45 | 31.56 | −2.75 | −0.23 | 4068 | 7440 | 10 489.40 | 40.99 | 1.54 |
Oesophagus | 23.95 | 26.67 | 25.07 | −6.00 | −0.31 | 3911 | 6019 | 8365.78 | 38.99 | 1.57 |
Oral | 13.27 | 21.38 | 28.40 | 32.84 | 1.10 | 2323 | 5124 | 8675.81 | 69.32 | 2.22 |
Pancreas | 20.74 | 21.71 | 23.18 | 6.75 | 0.18 | 3321 | 4833 | 7874.14 | 62.92 | 2.19 |
Prostate | 136.51 | 208.01 | 232.54 | 11.79 | 0.48 | 20 065 | 46 689 | 77 348.83 | 65.67 | 2.34 |
Stomach | 42.75 | 19.80 | 15.27 | −22.90 | −1.24 | 6739 | 4353 | 5220.27 | 19.92 | 0.89 |
Testis | 6.56 | 8.88 | 9.97 | 12.30 | 0.55 | 1639 | 2406 | 2920.80 | 21.40 | 0.91 |
Thyroid | 1.59 | 3.91 | 6.93 | 77.43 | 2.49 | 310 | 964 | 2089.44 | 116.75 | 3.42 |
Other | 70.47 | 47.87 | 49.78 | 3.98 | 0.22 | 11 204 | 10 659 | 16 527.69 | 55.06 | 2.11 |
All cancer sites | 783.29 | 808.13 | 812.52 | 0.54 | −0.03 | 126 682 | 182 091 | 270 260.90 | 48.42 | 1.82 |
Females | ||||||||||
Cancer site | ||||||||||
Anus | 1.61 | 3.27 | 5.11 | 56.34 | 1.92 | 360 | 873 | 1748.81 | 100.32 | 3.09 |
Bladder | 16.93 | 9.94 | 6.87 | −30.95 | −1.87 | 3881 | 2756 | 2855.27 | 3.60 | 0.11 |
Bone | 0.69 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 24.16 | 0.85 | 169 | 235 | 351.39 | 49.53 | 1.77 |
Bowel | 68.77 | 67.67 | 63.22 | −6.58 | −0.34 | 15 848 | 18 401 | 24 289.91 | 32.00 | 1.32 |
Brain | 14.10 | 20.44 | 21.97 | 7.50 | 0.30 | 3233 | 5489 | 7397.15 | 34.76 | 1.35 |
Breast | 160.46 | 204.93 | 209.51 | 2.24 | 0.14 | 35 585 | 54 833 | 71 022.04 | 29.52 | 1.26 |
Cervix | 16.28 | 11.81 | 16.85 | 42.68 | 1.65 | 3805 | 3223 | 4792.35 | 48.69 | 1.86 |
Hodgkin lymphoma | 2.17 | 3.21 | 3.17 | −1.05 | 0.14 | 553 | 881 | 993.46 | 12.77 | 0.77 |
Kidney | 8.51 | 17.27 | 20.42 | 18.21 | 0.70 | 1927 | 4634 | 7473.54 | 61.28 | 2.17 |
Larynx | 2.12 | 1.48 | 1.45 | −2.14 | −0.43 | 469 | 389 | 498.93 | 28.26 | 0.81 |
Leukaemia | 11.83 | 13.15 | 13.01 | −1.10 | −0.16 | 2753 | 3566 | 5043.55 | 41.43 | 1.52 |
Liver | 3.02 | 6.87 | 8.32 | 21.02 | 0.52 | 692 | 1884 | 3363.86 | 78.55 | 2.38 |
Lung | 62.61 | 80.94 | 80.46 | −0.59 | −0.12 | 14 177 | 21 633 | 29 957.38 | 38.48 | 1.44 |
Malignant melanoma | 14.54 | 28.64 | 30.40 | 6.14 | 0.29 | 3374 | 7698 | 10 277.73 | 33.51 | 1.37 |
Mesothelioma | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.86 | −45.98 | −3.42 | 178 | 428 | 362.64 | −15.27 | −1.17 |
Myeloma | 7.19 | 9.00 | 9.61 | 6.76 | 0.25 | 1644 | 2428 | 3659.35 | 50.71 | 1.90 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 16.01 | 22.67 | 21.92 | −3.32 | −0.36 | 3651 | 6069 | 8131.89 | 33.99 | 1.21 |
Oesophagus | 11.75 | 10.62 | 10.77 | 1.44 | 0.02 | 2730 | 2900 | 4291.51 | 47.98 | 1.81 |
Oral | 5.52 | 9.61 | 12.71 | 32.24 | 1.15 | 1243 | 2556 | 4384.60 | 71.54 | 2.37 |
Ovary | 27.22 | 27.67 | 31.89 | 15.23 | 0.61 | 6064 | 7367 | 10 500.59 | 42.54 | 1.58 |
Pancreas | 15.47 | 17.60 | 18.38 | 4.47 | 0.12 | 3573 | 4783 | 7282.64 | 52.26 | 1.91 |
Stomach | 17.66 | 8.48 | 7.72 | −8.92 | −0.47 | 4136 | 2329 | 3061.72 | 31.46 | 1.30 |
Thyroid | 3.42 | 9.01 | 15.68 | 74.07 | 2.34 | 815 | 2424 | 4749.60 | 95.94 | 2.88 |
Uterus | 21.84 | 35.51 | 33.09 | −6.84 | −0.39 | 4810 | 9323 | 11 576.13 | 24.17 | 0.95 |
Other | 53.26 | 42.00 | 40.89 | −2.62 | −0.13 | 12 326 | 11 540 | 15 623.74 | 35.39 | 1.45 |
All cancer sites | 563.75 | 664.27 | 685.37 | 3.18 | 0.11 | 127 996 | 178 642 | 243 689.80 | 36.41 | 1.43 |