Table 1.
Calibration and discrimination of various risk scores undergoing validation in the MESA study
| Risk Score | Predicted Events, n(%) | Observed Events, n(%) | Signed Absolute Difference | Discordance, %* | c-Statistic | Discrimination Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (n = 4227) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD† | 397.6 (9.41) | 263 (6.22) | 3.18 | 51 | 0.68 | 0.05 |
| FRS-CVD‡ | 561.3 (13.28) | 448 (10.60) | 2.68 | 25 | 0.71 | 0.09 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD¶ | 288.7 (6.83) | 134 (3.17) | 3.66 | 115 | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| RRS□ | 314.0 (7.43) | 323 (7.64) | -0.21 | -3 | 0.72 | 0.07 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD§ | 387.2 (9.16) | 218 (5.16) | 4.00 | 78 | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| Men (n = 1961) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD† | 251.1 (12.80) | 164 (8.36) | 4.44 | 53 | 0.69 | 0.05 |
| FRS-CVD‡ | 358.7 (18.29) | 261 (13.31) | 4.98 | 37 | 0.71 | 0.09 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD¶ | 218.6 (11.15) | 86 (4.39) | 6.76 | 154 | 0.71 | 0.05 |
| RRS□ | 213.5 (10.89) | 196 (9.99) | 0.89 | 9 | 0.70 | 0.06 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD§ | 232.1 (11.84) | 125 (6.37) | 5.46 | 86 | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| Women (n = 2266) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD† | 146.5 (6.47) | 99 (4.37) | 2.10 | 48 | 0.60 | 0.01 |
| FRS-CVD‡ | 202.6 (8.94) | 187 (8.25) | 0.69 | 8 | 0.70 | 0.05 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD¶ | 70.2 (3.10) | 48 (2.12) | 0.98 | 46 | 0.67 | 0.02 |
| RRS□ | 100.5 (4.44) | 127 (5.60) | -1.17 | -21 | 0.72 | 0.05 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD§ | 155.1 (6.84) | 93 (4.10) | 2.74 | 67 | 0.70 | 0.05 |
ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; ATP = Adult Treatment panel III; CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; FRS = Framingham Risk Score; RRS = Reynolds Risk Score
Percentage discordance calculation: ([expected percentage – observed percentage) / observed percentage] × 100).
End points are myocardial infarction, death from CHD, and angina.
End points are myocardial infarction, death from CHD, angina, stroke, transient ischemic attach, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure.
End points are myocardial infarction and death from CHD.
End points are myocardial infarction, death from CHD, stroke, and coronary revascularization.
End points are myocardial infarction, death from CHD, and stroke.