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. 2016 Nov 23;6:37522. doi: 10.1038/srep37522

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Copyright © 2016, The Author(s)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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(a) The smoothed (black curve) and unsmoothed (grey curve) YOK-G_TC reconstruction back to 1550 A.D. (b) Modern calibration with the HURDAT2 western Caribbean TC count (red curve) from 1900 to 1983. Shading in a and b indicates the 95% confidence band. (c) Histogram of the log likelihood values versus frequency. The dashed red line represents the log likelihood (probability) that the actual data correlates with the HURDAT2 western Caribbean TC count by chance (p = 0.001).