Table 3.

Model forecasting and validation for 2-, 3-, 6-, and 12-step ahead predictions for both models, with or without the external regressor (EVI at a lag of 2 months) over the period from January 2014 to September 2015

Steps ahead	Model
	Model 1				Model 2
	(4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12		(4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation		(1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12		(1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation
	MSE	R2	MSE	R2	MSE	R2	MSE	R2
2	0.041	0.897	0.045	0.887	0.045	0.887	0.041	0.897
3	0.075	0.812	0.075	0.810	0.064	0.838	0.066	0.833
6	0.113	0.634	0.132	0.666	0.107	0.729	0.107	0.729
12	0.160	0.595	0.168	0.575	0.145	0.633	0.144	0.638