Appendix B.

Stepwise Models of Hate Crime Incidence to Determine the Number of Lags and Leads (estimates represent relationship per one million individuals, standard errors in brackets)¹

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
Spatial Lag	0.3	0.32	0.3	0.31	0.31
	[0.2]	[0.2]	[0.2]	[0.19]	[0.19]
Const. amend.	0.03	0.08	0.15	0.02
	[0.37]	[0.38]	[0.37]	[0.34]
Const. amend. t-1	−0.12	0.19	0.17	0.15	0.19
	[0.4]	[0.35]	[0.35]	[0.35]	[0.3]
Const. amend. t-2	0.49
	[0.35]
Const. amend. t+1	−0.37	−0.4	−0.25
	[0.28]	[0.28]	[0.24]
Const. amend. t+2	0.41	0.4
	[0.26]	[0.25]
Partner. reco.	0.65	0.62	0.8	0.8 a	0.81 a
	[0.91]	[0.89]	[0.87]	[0.87]	[0.84]
Partner. reco. t-1	0.66	0.83	0.81	0.8 a	0.83 a
	[1.1]	[1.09]	[1.1]	[1.1]	[1.09]
Partner. reco. t-2	1.16	0.97	1	1.05 a	1.01 a
	[1.19]	[1.06]	[1.05]	[1.05]	[1.05]
Partner. reco. t+1	0.19	0.31
	[0.7]	[0.65]
Partner. reco. t+2	0.06
	[0.68]
Hate crime	−0.01	0.09	−0.1
	[0.51]	[0.51]	[0.47]
Hate crime t-1	−0.78	−0.89*	−0.81	−0.92*	−0.91*
	[0.48]	[0.45]	[0.44]	[0.38]	[0.38]
Hate crime t-2	−0.17
	[0.46]
Hate crime t+1	−0.42	−0.54
	[0.6]	[0.55]
Hate crime t+2	−0.07
	[1.08]
Emp. Discrim.	−1.01	−1.06	−1.1 a	−1.09 b	−1.11 b
	[0.86]	[0.86]	[0.77]	[0.77]	[0.76]
Emp. Discrim. t-1	−0.6	−0.88	−0.81 a	−0.8 b	−0.81 b
	[0.85]	[0.73]	[0.74]	[0.74]	[0.73]
Emp. Discrim. t-2	−0.4
	[0.72]
Emp. Discrim. t+1	0.04	0.06
	[0.93]	[0.81]
Emp. Discrim. t+2	0.15
	[0.89]
Violent crime inc	−1161.5	−1118.3*	−1096.4	−1094.5	−1118
	[594.4]	[562.3]	[566.5]	[561.2]	[570.8]
Property crime inc	−57.4	−64.9	−60.1	−63	−63.9
	[47.4]	[45.8]	[46.1]	[45.5]	[44.6]
Citizen ideology	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]
Unemployment	−0.06	−0.06	−0.06	−0.06	−0.07
	[0.09]	[0.08]	[0.08]	[0.08]	[0.08]
Democratic governor	0.3	0.32	0.35	0.3	0.33
	[0.52]	[0.55]	[0.48]	[0.52]	[0.52]
% Democratic legisl.	0.8	0.99	1.66	1.21	1.44
	[2.06]	[2.01]	[1.9]	[1.89]	[1.99]
Government ideology	0	−0.01	−0.01	0	−0.01
	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]	[0.02]
Racial hate crime	12857***	128043***	129172***	128788***	128679***
	[24657]	[24221]	[24717]	[24580]	[24587]
Religion hate crime	145979	155788	150616	153608	153270
	[85350]	[84381]	[84311]	[83620]	[83652]
Disability hate crime	47976	44828	40149	43725	53361
	[220981]	[222970]	[225289]	[224551]	[224167]
Constant	7.14*	7.24*	6.74*	6.87*	7.05*
	[3.22]	[3.01]	[3.02]	[2.94]	[2.94]
N	637	637	637	637	637
Multiple Imputation	x	x	x	x	x

¹Spatial lag has a one-to-one relationship (not one-to-one million).

^a–bJointly statistically significant (Wald test)

^*p<0.05,

^**p<0.01,

^***p<0.001