Table 2.

Lasso GLM coefficients to predict subsequent course of DSM-IV major depressive disorder based on characteristics of the incident episode^a

	Percent of years in episode
	Any episode IDRb	Episode lasting most of year IDRb	Hospitalized HRb	Disabled ORb
I. Criterion A symptoms of major depression
Severe dysphoriac (ICD-10 severity specifier)	1.1	1.4	1.7	1.2
Anhedonia				1.1
Weight loss	0.9
Weight gain		1.1		0.8
Insomnia			1.3
Hypersomnia			1.5
Psychomotor agitation			1.2
Psychomotor retardation				1.2
Suicidality		1.1	1.6	1.5
II. Symptoms of dysthymia
Inability to cope			1.9	1.4
III. Sym ptoms of anxiety
Irritability	1.1		0.8	1.2
Panic		1.1	1.3	1.5
IV. Symptoms of mixed episode
Racing thoughts		0.8
High energy			1.2
V. Multivariate symptom profiles
AOO < 19 and suicidality				1.3
AOO < 19 and anxiety	1.1	1.3	1.2
AOO ≥ 35 and suicidality and anxiety		1.2
VI. Other predictorsd
Endogenous				0.7
Parental history of depression		1.2	1.2	1.2
N	(2,869)	(3,958)	(6,465)	(8,261)

^aBased on Lasso GLM penalized regression models, with the size of penalty determined by 10-fold cross-validation to select the penalty yielding cross-validating results with minimum mean squared prediction error. No Confidence intervals are reported because standard errors of such simulated models are biased. See the text for a discussion of differences in link functions and sample sizes.

^bIDR = Incidence density ratio; HR=Hazard ratio; OR = Odds-ratio

^cThis is not the DSM-IV Criterion A symptom of dysphoria but the ICD-10 symptom for somatic depression that the dysphoria is so severe that the patient has a lack of emotional reaction to events or activities that normally produce an emotional response. The DSM-IV symptom of dysphoria, in comparison, was not a significant predictor in any of the models.

^dAn additional 12 predictors were included in the Lasso GLM models that had coefficients of either zero or near zero across all outcomes. These predictors are dysphoria, fatigue/loss of energy, worthlessness or excessive guilt, diminished ability to concentrate or indecisiveness, social withdrawal, nervousness-worry-anxiety, multivariate symptoms profiles of childhood (before age 13) onset with anxiety and/or suicidality, multivariate symptom profiles of AOO before 19 with anxiety and suicidality, other multivariate symptom profiles of AOO either before 13 or before 19 or after 34 with either anxiety and/or suicidality, little need for sleep, total number of symptoms, age of onset, and time between onset and age at interview.