Table 2.
Coefficients (odds-ratios) from the final penalized and unpenalized survival models for first founded non-familial minor violent crime perpetrationa
| Men | Women | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penalizedb | Unpenalized | Penalizedb | Unpenalized | |||||||||
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| % | (se) | OR | OR | (95% CI) | VIFc | % | (se) | OR | OR | (95% CI) | VIFc | |
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| I. Socio-demographics | ||||||||||||
| Age - 17–22 | 26.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.2* | (1.2–1.2) | 1.5 | 28.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.2–1.5) | 1.6 |
| Race/ethnicity - Non-Hispanic Black | 18.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0* | (2.0–2.1) | 1.1 | 37.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.0* | (1.8–2.1) | 1.1 |
| Education - Less than high school | 11.2 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.6* | (2.5–2.8) | 2.0 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.8* | (2.3–3.4) | 1.6 |
| Education - Completed high school but no college | 63.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.7* | (1.6–1.8) | 2.5 | 61.8 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7* | (1.5–2.1) | 2.4 |
| II. Army career | ||||||||||||
| Previously or never deployed (not currently) | 76.3 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 3.6* | (3.4–3.7) | 1.0 | 84.2 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.0* | (2.5–3.5) | 1.0 |
| Area-based Component Command | 18.0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.7* | (1.7–1.8) | 1.0 | 16.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.7* | (1.6–1.9) | 1.0 |
| Rank junior enlisted (E1–E4) | 44.9 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.4* | (2.3–2.6) | 4.4 | 47.8 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.4* | (3.5–5.6) | 3.4 |
| Rank intermediate enlisted (E5–E6) | 27.7 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.9* | (1.8–2.0) | 2.7 | 25.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.6* | (2.0–3.3) | 2.3 |
| Years in service 10 or less | 69.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4* | (1.3–1.5) | 1.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| AFQT 49th percentile or less | 28.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.3–1.4) | 1.1 | 33.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3* | (1.2–1.4) | 1.2 |
| Demotion in the past 12 months | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5* | (1.4–1.5) | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6* | (1.4–1.9) | 1.1 |
| Positive drug test in past 3 months | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.2–1.4) | 1.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| III. Prior crime | ||||||||||||
| a. Perpetration of…. | ||||||||||||
| Any crime in past 12 months (Count)d | 5.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | (0.9–1.1) | 19.4 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | (0.9–1.4) | 10.8 |
| Any crime in past 24 months (Count)d | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1* | (1.1–1.2) | 18.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Major violence in past 12 months | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.1–1.5) | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5* | (1.2–2.0) | 1.1 |
| Any crime in past 12 months | 5.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.2–1.5) | 17.2 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | (0.7–1.4) | 12.2 |
| Major violence in past 24 months | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.3* | (1.1–1.5) | 3.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Any crime in past 24 months | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4* | (1.3–1.6) | 16.4 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.9* | (1.6–2.3) | 2.8 |
| b. Victim of…. | ||||||||||||
| Any crime in past 12 months (Count)e | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.4* | (1.3–1.4) | 1.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Major violence in past 12 months | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | (0.7–1.0) | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | (0.7–1.7) | 3.0 |
| Major violence in past 24 months | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.5* | (1.2–1.7) | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4* | (1.0–2.1) | 3.1 |
| Any crime in past 24 months (Count)e | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | (1.0–1.3) | 7.9 |
| Any crime in past 12 months | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | (0.9–1.4) | 3.0 |
| Any crime in past 24 months | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | (1.0–1.6) | 8.5 |
| IV. Clinical factors | ||||||||||||
| a. Outpatient treatment of… | ||||||||||||
| Any mental disorder in past 3 months (Categorical)f | 13.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0* | (1.0–1.1) | 2.2 | 21.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.1* | (1.1–1.2) | 1.3 |
| Any mental disorder in past 12 months (Categorical)f | 28.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1* | (1.1–1.1) | 2.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Marital problems in past 12 months | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5* | (1.4–1.6) | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5* | (1.3–1.8) | 1.4 |
| Stressor/adversity in past 12 months | 8.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4* | (1.3–1.5) | 1.8 | 13.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.3* | (1.2–1.5) | 1.5 |
| Alcohol disorder in past 12 months | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4* | (1.3–1.6) | 5.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Any substance disorder in past 12 months | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | (0.9–1.1) | 6.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| b. Inpatient treatment of… | ||||||||||||
| Any mental disorder in past 3 months | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | (0.9–1.9) | 1.6 |
| Any mental disorder in past 12 months | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.8* | (1.3–2.3) | 1.6 |
Abbreviations: OR, odds ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; se, standard error; VIF, variance inflation factor; MPP, mixing parameter penalty; MOS, military occupational specialty; TRADOC, training and doctrine command; FORSCOM, forces command; ODD, oppositional defiant disorder; WO, warrant officer; CO, commissioned officer; NCO, non-commissioned officer.
The analysis sample included all person-months with the outcome plus a probability sample of all other person-months in the population stratified by sex and marital status (total case-control sample of 1,001,092 person-months; 910,688 for men; 90,404 for women). All records in the control sample were weighted by the inverse of probability of selection. Variables were coded dichotomously (yes/no) unless otherwise indicated.
The optimal penalized (elastic net) models had a mixing parameter of α=0.7 for men and α=0.9 for women. These are weighted more in the direction of the lasso penalty (α=1.0), which favors deletion of all but one predictor in each highly correlated predictor set, than the ridge penalty (α=0.0), which favors the inclusion of all predictors even when they are highly correlated and adjustment for multicollinearity by coefficient shrinkage.
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for the coefficient associated with independent variable Xi in the above equation equals 1/(1-R2i), where R2i is the coefficient of determination of a regression equation in which Xi is the dependent variable and all the other independent variables in the model are included as predictors of Xi. VIF ≥ 5.0 is typically considered an indicator of meaningful multicollinearity (Belsley, 1991; Stine, 1995).
This was a continuous variable coded 0–9 to represent the number of different types of founded perpetrations. The percentages reported reflect that 5.1% of men and 3.6% of women perpetrated one or more crimes in the past 12 months, and 7.8% of men perpetrated one or more crimes in the past 24 months.
This was a continuous variable coded 0–5 to represent the number of different types of victimizations. The percentages reported reflect that 2.6% of men had been victimized one or more times in the past 12 months and 7.1% of women had been victimized one or more times in the past 24 months.
This was a categorical variable coded 0–4 (0=0 visits; 1=1–2 visits; 2=3–5 visits; 3=6–10 visits; 4=11+ visits). The percentages reported reflects that 13.4% of men and 21.1% of women had one or more days with outpatient visits for any mental disorder in the past 3 months, and 28.0% of men had one or more such visit in the past 12 months.