Table 3.

Proportion of observed crimes committed by those in the top-ventile of predicted risk over 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month periods and across time-intervals^a

	Men						Women
	1-month		6-month		12-month		1-month		6-month		12-month
	Est	(se)	Est	(se)	Est	(se)	Est	(se)	Est	(se)	Est	(se)
1/04–1/09	28.5	0.3	22.7	0.1	18.4	0.1	25.3	0.9	20.9	0.3	17.8	0.2
1/04–8/05	28.1	0.5	22.6	0.2	18.4	0.1	24.1	1.6	20.2	0.6	17.2	0.4
9/05–4/07	28.4	0.5	22.2	0.2	18.3	0.1	26.5	1.7	21.1	0.6	17.9	0.4
5/07–1/09	28.8	0.5	23.1	0.2	18.6	0.1	25.4	1.5	21.2	0.6	18.1	0.4
1/04–6/06	28.3	0.4	22.6	0.2	18.5	0.1	24.3	1.3	20.2	0.5	17.2	0.3
7/06–1/09	28.6	0.4	22.7	0.2	18.3	0.1	26.2	1.3	21.5	0.5	18.2	0.3

Abbreviations:Est, estimate; se, standard error.

^aEstimates are based on the predicted probabilities from the optimal penalized (elastic net) models. The optimal penalized models had a mixing parameter of α=0.7 for men and α=0.9 for women. These are weighted more in the direction of the lasso penalty (α=1.0), which favors deletion of all but one predictor in each highly correlated predictor set, than the ridge penalty (α=0.0), which favors the inclusion of all predictors even when they are highly correlated and adjustment for multicollinearity by coefficient shrinkage. February-December 2009 were excluded because we did not have 12-months of follow-up data after these months