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Outbreak size at the time of detection Aaff for monthly design prevalence of 5% (A) and 1% (B) for the DT model and for the IT model with different pathogen half-life. Outlier symbols (+) show 5 and 95% quantile. Asterisks show significance of Mann–Whitney U test against DT model (H0: not less than DT; *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001).
