Table 1.
Positive and negative predictive values for achieving ≥5% weight loss with liraglutide 3.0 mg at 56 weeks using different early response criteria: pooled analysis of the SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes and SCALE Diabetes trials
| Week | Early response criterion (%) | N | Early response, n (%) | Mean week 56 weight change (%) in early responders | Positive predictive value, n (%)a | Early nonresponse, n (%) | Mean week 56 weight change (%) in early nonresponders | Negative predictive value, n (%)b | Correctly predicted, n (%)c |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | 2,653 | 2,035 (76.7) | −10.09 | 1,544 (75.9) | 618 (23.3) | −3.69 | 439 (71.0) | 1,983 (74.7) |
| 4 | 1,644 (62.0) | −11.00 | 1,373 (83.5) | 1,009 (38.0) | −4.53 | 659 (65.3) | 2,032 (76.6) | ||
| 5 | 1,245 (46.9) | −12.10 | 1,096 (88.0) | 1,408 (53.1) | −5.46 | 781 (55.5) | 1,877 (70.8) | ||
| 12 | 3 | 2,578 | 2,084 (80.8) | −9.98 | 1,601 (76.8) | 494 (19.2) | −2.79 | 389 (78.7) | 1,990 (77.2) |
| 4 | 1,821 (70.6) | −10.68 | 1,485 (81.5) | 757 (29.4) | −3.56 | 536 (70.8) | 2,021 (78.4) | ||
| 5 | 1,515 (58.8) | −11.55 | 1,312 (86.6) | 1,063 (41.2) | −4.37 | 669 (62.9) | 1,981 (76.8) | ||
| 16 | 3 | 2,519 | 2,099 (83.3) | −9.95 | 1,609 (76.7) | 420 (16.7) | −2.29 | 338 (80.5) | 1,947 (77.3) |
| 4 | 1,893 (75.1) | −10.46 | 1,541 (81.4) | 626 (24.9) | −3.02 | 476 (76.0) | 2,017 (80.1) | ||
| 5 | 1,637 (65.0) | −11.21 | 1,411 (86.2) | 882 (35.0) | −3.78 | 602 (68.3) | 2,013 (79.9) |
Week 56 response is defined as at least a 5% reduction in body weight. If data were missing for week 56, the last available body weight measurement was used (i.e., missing data were imputed using last observation carried forward). Mean weight loss is based on observed data only.
Positive predictive value is defined as the percentage of early responders who were week 56 responders.
Negative predictive value is defined as the percentage of early nonresponders who were week 56 nonresponders.
Correctly predicted proportion = (number of correctly predicted week 56 responders + number of correctly predicted week 56 nonresponders)/(total number of subjects).