Figure 1. Projected 21^st-century Arctic (70°–90°N) near-surface warming (T2m) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble.

(a) Model-mean annual mean Arctic near-surface temperature change, (b) Annual cycle in Arctic near-surface warming, with the grey envelope representing the standard deviation of the intermodel mean. Dark-grey lines denote individual CMIP5 models. Results are for the strong (RCP8.5) forcing scenario, in which the combined greenhouse, aerosol and other radiative forcings in the year 2100 totals 8.5 W m⁻² (ref. ¹³) relative to the pre-industrial climate. 21^st-century trends in Arctic temperature are defined as the difference between the means over the periods 2091–2100 and 2006–2015 (37 models). The map in (a) was made using Python V2.7 (www.python.org).