Table 1.
Baseline Characteristics of Phase II Enrollees and Phase I High‐Risk Enrollees
| Characteristic | Medicare FFS Average (2012) (n = 32 million) | Phase II Enrollees | Phase I High‐Risk Enrollees | Phase II Enrollees, Weighteda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment Group Mean (n = 241) | Control Group Mean (n = 242) | Difference | Treatment and Control (n = 366) | Treatment and Control (n = 483) | ||
| Age, % | ||||||
| Under 65 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 65–74 | 45.5 | 40.2 | 32.6 | 7.6 | 36.9 | 36.4 |
| 75–84 | 25.4 | 35.7 | 40.5 | −4.8 | 48.6 | 51.6 |
| 85 and older | 12.4 | 24.1 | 26.9 | −2.8 | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| Male, % | 44.7 | 46.1 | 42.1 | 3.9 | 51.1 | 49.6 |
| Race and ethnicityb, % | ||||||
| Black, non‐Hispanic | 10.4 | 1.7 | 3.3 | −1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Hispanic | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | −0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid, % | 21.0c | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 |
| Diagnosisd, % | ||||||
| Coronary artery disease | 29.8 | 79.3 | 74.0 | 5.3 | 82.8 | 82.8 |
| Congestive heart failure | 15.3 | 51.0 | 45.9 | 5.2 | 38.0 | 37.3 |
| Diabetes | 28.0 | 43.6 | 48.8 | −5.2 | 42.6 | 42.0 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 11.8 | 42.3 | 41.7 | 0.6 | 26.0 | 24.7 |
| Cancer, excluding skin cancer | NA | 16.6 | 14.5 | 2.1 | 13.1 | 14.8 |
| Stroke | 4.0 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 1.7 | 12.0 | 13.5 |
| Depression | 15.9 | 24.9 | 25.2 | −0.3 | 14.5 | 14.0 |
| Dementia and Alzheimer's | 11.1 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Osteoporosis | 6.7 | 19.9 | 20.7 | −0.7 | 18.0 | 21.4 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 30.3 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 0.6 | 33.3 | 31.7 |
| Chronic kidney disease | 16.2 | 34.0 | 32.6 | 1.4 | 14.5 | 14.2 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 8.2 | 32.4 | 31.0 | 1.4 | 33.3 | 33.6 |
| Number of chronic conditions (of 12 above) | 1.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| In the year before enrollment | ||||||
| Annualized hospitalizations, number | 0.295 | 1.604 | 1.726 | −0.123 | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| Medicare Part A and B expenditures, dollars per beneficiary per month | 860 | 2,390 | 2,521 | −131 | NAe | NAe |
| Any use of home health, % | NA | 51.9 | 52.1 | −0.2 | 35.0 | 32.2 |
| Any use of a skilled nursing facility, % | NA | 18.7 | 23.6 | −4.9 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Characteristics of enrollees’ residence ZIP code, mean | ||||||
| Median household income, dollars | 51,371 | 79,715 | 79,151 | 564 | 81,776 | 83,197 |
| College degree or more, % | 28.5 | 38.8 | 37.9 | 1.0 | 40.8 | 41.6 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | −0.1 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
For each sample for which impacts were analyzed (Phase II enrollees, Phase I high‐risk enrollees, and Phase II enrollees) after weighting, there were no statistically significant differences between treatment and control groups (p > .15 for all variables).
The Phase II enrollees are weighted to resemble the Phase I enrollees on baseline characteristics.
Includes all (not only fee‐for‐service [FFS]) Medicare beneficiaries who were enrolled on or after January 1, 2012.
The Medicare FFS average was approximated by using the percentage of Medicare beneficiaries who were dual eligibles in 2011. See http://kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/duals-as-a-of-medicare-beneficiaries.
Diagnoses were based on the 2010 version of the Chronic Conditions Warehouse (CCW) definitions. The evaluation used a 2‐year look‐back period for dementia and Alzheimer's rather than the 3 years used by CCW because of the limits of the Medicare claims data extracted for the analysis.
We did not use Medicare expenditures in generating the weight to make the two groups similar because of inflation in Medicare expenditures.
NA, not available.