Table 3.

Estimates of lifetime costs, effects and cost-effectiveness for different extrapolation assumptions

Separate parametric models	No screening	MMS	USS
Costs	£143	£588	£782
(95% confidence interval)	(£121 to £169)	(£425 to £745)	(£526 to £1110)
QALYs	14.352	14.376	14.361
(95% confidence interval)	(5.100 to 15.922)	(5.108 to 15.95)	(5.095 to 15.941)
ICER per QALY	–	£18,372 vs no screening	Dominated by MMS
(95% confidence interval)		(£7709 to £96,784)
Life years	24.743	24.820	24.818
(95% confidence interval)	(24.706 to 24.771)	(24.789 to 24.840)	(24.786 to 24.839)
Ovarian cancer deaths	1.99%	1.04%	1.05%
(95% confidence interval)	(1.65% to 2.45%)	(0.85% to 1.34%)	(0.87% to 1.37%)
Same parametric models	No screening	MMS	USS
Costs	£128	£587	£780
(95% confidence interval)	(£109 to £149)	(£427 to £745)	(£520 to £1105)
QALYs	14.343	14.356	14.341
(95% confidence interval)	(5.174 to 15.933)	(5.176 to 15.949)	(5.166 to 15.94)
ICER per QALY	–	£36,769 vs no screening	Dominated by MMS
(95% confidence interval)		(£13,888 to dominated)
Life years	24.778	24.821	24.818
(95% confidence interval)	(24.751 to 24.797)	(24.789 to 24.84)	(24.787 to 24.838)
Ovarian cancer deaths	1.49%	1.03%	.05%
(95% confidence interval)	(1.29% to 1.77%)	(0.85% to 1.35%)	(0.86% to 1.36%)
Model discrepancy; 5% per year	No screening	MMS	USS
Costs	£179	£614	£851
(95% confidence interval)	(£136 to £235)	(£440 to £784)	(£578 to £1194)
QALYs	14.209	14.244	14.194
(95% confidence interval)	(4.671 to 15.903)	(4.66 to 15.954)	(4.622 to 15.914)
ICER per QALY	–	£12,643 vs no screening	Dominated by MMS
(95% confidence interval)		(£3734 to dominated)
Life years	24.659	24.800	24.722
(95% confidence interval)	(24.548 to 24.739)	(24.591 to 24.863)	(24.417 to 24.801)
Ovarian cancer deaths	3.22%	1.99%	3.42%
(95% confidence interval)	(2.02% to 5.08%)	(0.70% to 4.73%)	(1.37% to 7.59%)

ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, QALYs quality-adjusted life years