Table 1.

Observed versus predicted mortality for 2001-3 using a nine variable Bayes model built on 2000 data

	Observed				Predicted
Bayes score (%)*	Alive	Deaths	Total	Observed mortality (%)	Deaths	Predicted mortality (%)
<1.0%	20 467	91	20 558	0.4	144.7	0.7
1.0-1.9%	23 834	271	24 105	1.1	339.2	1.4
2.0-2.9%	9913	217	10 130	2.1	245.7	2.4
3.0-4.9%	7656	262	7918	3.3	302.3	3.8
5.0-9.9%	4288	293	4581	6.4	307.8	6.7
>9.9%	1765	333	2098	15.9	373.7	17.8
All	67 923	1467	69 390	2.1	1713.3	2.5

The model takes account of age, body surface area, diabetes, hypertension, left ventricular function, the presence of left main coronary disease, renal disease, and previous heart surgery.

^*The higher the score, the higher the risk of death for the patient.