Table 1.

Event rates and transition probabilities

Event type	Cumulative rate (years)	Transition probability (range)	Distribution	References
CVD	0.0625 (10)	0.00643	No change	By design
Revascularization	0.0625 (10)	0.00643	No change	Derived from CVD (above) and MI, stroke and revascularization rate in JUPITER, Ridker et al. NEJM 2008 [11]
MI		0.0037 (±20%)	β	Ridker et al. NEJM 2008 [11]
Stroke		0.0034 (±20%)	β	Ridker et al. NEJM 2008 [11]
Revascularization		0.0071 (±20%)	β	Ridker et al. NEJM 2008 [11]
Recurrent MI	0.144 (7)	0.022 (±20%)	β	Cannon et al. NEJM 2015 [13]
MI post stroke		0.0074 (±20%)	β	Greisenegger et al. Stroke 2015 [14]
Recurrent stroke		0.023 (±20%)	β	Greisenegger et al. Stroke 2015 [14]
CVD post CABG	0.269 CVD (5) 0.114 mortality (5)	0.0377 (±20%)	β	Mohr et al. Lancet 2013 [12]
CVD post PCI	0.373 CVD (5) 0.139 mortality (5)	0.0615 (±20%)	β	Mohr et al. Lancet 2013 [12]
Death post MI	0.222 (7)	0.0352 (±20%)	β	Cannon et al. NEJM 2015 [13]
Death post-stroke		0.0649 (±20%)	β	Greisenegger et al. Stroke 2015 [14]
Death post CABG	0.114 (5)	0.0239 (±20%)	β	Mohr et al. Lancet 2013 [12]
Death post PCI	0.139 (5)	0.0295 (±20%)	β	Mohr et al. Lancet 2013 [12]
Death post multiple CVD		0.1 (±20%)	β	Law et al. Arch Int Med 2002 [15]
Death post severe adverse event		0.09 (±20%)	β	Lee et al. Circulation 2010 [32]
Diabetes from high-intensity statin		0.003 (±20%)	β	Stone et al. Circulation 2014 [4]
Diabetes from moderate-intensity statin		0.001 (±20%)	β	Stone et al. Circulation 2014 [4]
Mild adverse events from statin		0.056 (0.0001–0.175)	β	Kashani et al. Circulation 2006 [41]
Severe adverse events from statin		0.0001 (±20%)	β	Stone et al. Circulation 2014 [4]

When published event rate were reported by others as cumulative rates, the cumulative rate is shown in the table, and converted to 1-year event rates by assuming constant hazard and exponential distribution of time to event (see Methods)