Fig. 3.

Statewide change in cover of major vegetation types for 2020–2049 and 2070–2099, relative to simulated distributions for the 1961–1990 reference period. ASF, alpine/subalpine forest; ECF, evergreen conifer forest; MEF, mixed evergreen forest; MEW, mixed evergreen woodland; GRS, grassland; SHB, shrubland; DES, desert. Increasing temperatures drive the reduction in alpine/subalpine forest cover and cause mixed conifer forest to displace evergreen conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the North Coast. Mixed conifer forest in the South Coast expands because of increased humidity and reduced fire frequency. Because of drier conditions and increased fire frequency in inland locations, grassland displaces shrubland and woodland, particularly in the PCM simulations, whereas warmer and drier conditions under HadCM3 cause an expansion of desert cover in the southern Central Valley.