Table 3.

Scenario estimates of annual change in migration pressure, by country

		Scenarios
		Reference period	Business as usual		Open economies		Closed economies
		2000–2015	2015–2025	2025–2035	2015–2025	2025–2035	2015–2025	2025–2035
Morocco	GDP	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	5.6%	5.6%	2.3%	2.3%
	Output per worker	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	3.6%	4.4%	0.0%	0.0%
	Working-age population	1.7%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.7%
	Employment ratio	−0.1%	0.8%	0.9%	1.4%	0.5%	1.6%	1.6%
	Non-employed population	180,621	1,528	5,492	-3,287	23,356	−136,840	−183,178
	Migration pressure	+	+	+	−	+	−	−
Algeria	GDP	3.6%	3.6%	3.6%	4.5%	4.5%	1.8%	1.8%
	Output per worker	−0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%
	Working-age population	2.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%	0.9%	0.8%
	Employment ratio	1.9%	2.4%	2.6%	−0.2%	0.0%	0.9%	1.0%
	Non-employed population	105,304	−189,876	−424,462	198,533	170,245	7,490	−50,579
	Migration pressure	+	−	−	+	+	+	−
Tunisia	GDP	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%	4.0%	4.0%	1.6%	1.6%
	Output per worker	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%	2.8%	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%
	Working-age population	1.5%	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.2%
	Employment ratio	−0.2%	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%	1.6%	1.4%
	Non-employed population	65,423	−14,978	−5,012	−12,578	−7,770	−58,295	−52,416
	Migration pressure	+	−	−	−	−	−	−
Turkey	GDP	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	5.0%	5.0%	2.0%	2.0%
	Output per worker	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
	Working-age population	1.8%	0.9%	0.6%	1.0%	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%
	Employment ratio	0.0%	0.8%	1.2%	0.7%	1.1%	1.2%	1.5%
	Non-employed population	430,897	11,468	−252,805	55,109	−241,963	−119,245	−390,439
	Migration pressure	+	+	−	+	−	−	−