Table 2.
Simulated HRH shortfalls or surpluses by profession and country for 2030—based on demographic change alone
| Country | Profession | Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+) | Country | Profession | Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Midwives | −9 068 | Italy | Midwives | −1 779 |
| Nurses | −144 654 | Nurses | −153 147 | ||
| Physicians | −23 393 | Physicians | −89 467 | ||
| Austria | Midwives | −238 | Japan | Midwives | −7 086 |
| Nurses | +13 505 | Nurses | +58 188 | ||
| Physicians | −12 584 | Physicians | −7 579 | ||
| Belgium | Midwives | −1 428 | Luxembourg | Midwives | −112 |
| Nurses | −65 590 | Nurses | −5 156 | ||
| Physicians | −5 365 | Physicians | −1 252 | ||
| Canada | Midwives | −437 | Netherlands | Midwives | −773 |
| Nurses | −84 719 | Nurses | −31 068 | ||
| Physicians | +8 108 | Physicians | −8 369 | ||
| Chile | Midwives | −4 735 | New Zealand | Midwives | +1 271 |
| Nurses | Nurses | −10 035 | |||
| Physicians | Physicians | +5 297 | |||
| Czech Republic | Midwives | −544 | Norway | Midwives | −1 192 |
| Nurses | −31 975 | Nurses | −47 886 | ||
| Physicians | −9 195 | Physicians | −13 057 | ||
| Denmark | Midwives | −202 | Poland | Midwives | +2 042 |
| Nurses | −46 540 | Nurses | −48 036 | ||
| Physicians | −475 | Physicians | −16 524 | ||
| Estonia | Midwives | +70 | Portugal | Midwives | −752 |
| Nurses | −6 319 | Nurses | −8 538 | ||
| Physicians | −3 375 | Physicians | −13 285 | ||
| Finland | Midwives | +622 | Slovakia | Midwives | −126 |
| Nurses | −1 361 | Nurses | +8 304 | ||
| Physicians | −956 | Physicians | −5 238 | ||
| France | Midwives | −3 485 | Slovenia | Midwives | +180 |
| Nurses | −177 497 | Nurses | +13 626 | ||
| Physicians | −83 950 | Physicians | −82 | ||
| Germany | Midwives | −2 058 | South Korea | Midwives | −474 |
| Nurses | −135 236 | Nurses | +104 127 | ||
| Physicians | −73 130 | Physicians | −27 861 | ||
| Greece | Midwives | Spain | Midwives | +54 | |
| Nurses | Nurses | −85 858 | |||
| Physicians | −33 761 | Physicians | −27 341 | ||
| Hungary | Midwives | −510 | Sweden | Midwives | −3 576 |
| Nurses | +11 027 | Nurses | −57 574 | ||
| Physicians | −4 398 | Physicians | −9 352 | ||
| Iceland | Midwives | −174 | Switzerland | Midwives | −262 |
| Nurses | −1 294 | Nurses | −4 690 | ||
| Physicians | −499 | Physicians | −14 581 | ||
| Ireland | Midwives | −5 618 | United Kingdom | Midwives | −2 225 |
| Nurses | −32 498 | Nurses | −36 240 | ||
| Physicians | +7 026 | Physicians | +33 318 | ||
| Israel | Midwives | −781 | United States | Midwives | −2 630 |
| Nurses | −24 181 | Nurses | −143 302 | ||
| Physicians | −23 789 | Physicians | −303 760 |
These simulations are not to be taken as predictions about the future. Should large shortfalls or surpluses appear on the planning horizon, it is likely that substantial changes to these variables—such as increases or reductions in training capacity or levels of service provision—will be made; indeed the purpose of performing these simulations is to inform such planning. The shortfalls or surpluses shown here are measured relative to any shortfalls or surpluses that may already exist for these professions in these countries. In these simulations, all other planning parameters are held constant. Analyses demonstrating the sensitivity of these simulations to changes in other planning parameters are provided elsewhere in this report.