Table 2. Estimated minimum number of years that are needed for the SAI influence to become detectable in annual-mean global-mean SAT from deployment in 2020, using the TfNo method at the 10% level.
| HadGEM2-ES (3) | CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 (3) | CanESM2 (3) | BNU-ESM (1) | MIROC-ESM (1) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HadGEM2-ES r1 | — | 25 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| HadGEM2-ES r2 | — | 5 | 10 | 5 | 25 |
| HadGEM2-ES r3 | — | 25 | 30 | 5 | 30+ |
| CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 r1 | 25 | — | 15 | 30+ | 25 |
| CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 r2 | 25 | — | 25 | 30+ | 25 |
| CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 r3 | 30+ | — | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| CanESM2 r1 | 5 | 30+ | — | 30 | 20 |
| CanESM2 r2 | 25 | 30+ | — | 20 | 25 |
| CanESM2 r3 | 20 | 10 | — | 10 | 25 |
| BNU-ESM r1 | 5 | 5 | 10 | — | 25 |
| MIROC-ESM r1 | 30+ | 30+ | 30+ | 30+ | — |
There are 44 pseudo-observation (in rows) model (in columns) comparisons in total. r1, r2 and r3 stand for the first, second and third G4 realisation, respectively. Numbers in brackets indicate the number of members over which ensemble mean is taken in the model-simulations.