Figure 1. Representation of Area under Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) values for HPAI H5N1 and H5Nx models.
Representation of AUC values for HPAI H5N1 and New Clade H5Nx 2.3.4.4 model for all sets of predictor variables, assessed through standard cross validation (Standard CV), in light grey, and accounting for spatial sorting bias (SSB) in dark grey. On the right, the AUC values for spatial cross validation (Spatial CV) are represented in black. All these metrics represent mean AUC ± standard deviation. Additionally, the AUC values for Set 2.1 and Set 3.1 are represented in Figure 1—figure supplement 1.
Figure 1—figure supplement 1. Comparison of AUC values of additional sets (Set 2.1 and Set 3.1) of predictor variables.
AUC values for HPAI H5N1 (top) and New Clade H5Nx 2.3.4.4 (below) models for Set 1 (host variables), Set 2 (land use and land cover variables), Set 3 (eco-climatic variables), Set 4 (selection of variables on the basis of prior epidemiological knowledge), Set 2.1 (Set 2 and Set 1) and Set 3.1 (Set 3 and Set 1) of predictor variables, assessed through standard cross validation (Standard CV, left) and spatial cross validation (Spatial CV, right). The predictor variable sets are detailed in Table 1.