Figure 3. Present-day populations have negligible ancestry from an early dispersal of modern humans out of Africa.

Best-fitting admixture graph model of relationships among Australians, New Guineans, Andamanese and other diverse populations. Present-day populations are shown in blue, ancient samples in red, and select inferred ancestral nodes in green. Dotted lines indicate admixture events, all of which involve archaic humans. All f-statistic relationships are accurately fit to within 2.1 standard errors. (Inset) Results of adding putative early dispersal admixture to the graph model for different assumptions about when the early lineage split off. We specify the split time in terms of the genetic drift above the "Non-African" node, with 0.01 units of drift representing on the order of ten thousand years. The (approximate) model likelihood is maximized with zero early dispersal ancestry, and no more than a few percent is consistent with the data.