Table S1.
Scenario | Year | SDG 2016 | SSPs 2014 | UNWPP 2015 | |||||
SDG1 | SDG2 | SDG3 | SSP1 | SSP2 | SSP3 | Lower limit (95%) | Upper limit (95%) | ||
Fertility scenario* | −20% | −20% | −10% | −20% | +20% | ||||
Education scenario | Secondary completion by 2030 | ||||||||
Upper | Lower | Lower | |||||||
World | 2010 | 6,871 | 6,871 | 6,871 | 6,871 | 6,871 | 6,871 | ||
2030 | 8,112 | 8,152 | 8,200 | 8,024 | 8,256 | 8,511 | 8,360 | 8,648 | |
2050 | 8,759 | 8,866 | 8,964 | 8,504 | 9,140 | 9,966 | 9,284 | 10,182 | |
2100 | 8,192 | 8,434 | 8,654 | 7,084 | 8,948 | 12,752 | 9,494 | 13,294 | |
Africa | 2010 | 1,022 | 1,022 | 1,022 | 1,022 | 1,022 | 1,022 | ||
2030 | 1,448 | 1,468 | 1,488 | 1,458 | 1,526 | 1,610 | 1,646 | 1,712 | |
2050 | 1,760 | 1,816 | 1,874 | 1,800 | 2,017 | 2,323 | 2,324 | 2,627 | |
2100 | 1,968 | 2,093 | 2,255 | 1,924 | 2,620 | 3,922 | 3,442 | 5,589 | |
Asia | 2010 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | 4,141 | ||
2030 | 4,752 | 4,769 | 4,797 | 4,680 | 4,828 | 5,019 | 4,805 | 5,044 | |
2050 | 4,946 | 4,987 | 5,031 | 4,727 | 5,107 | 5,682 | 4,928 | 5,634 | |
2100 | 4,135 | 4,220 | 4,294 | 3,320 | 4,355 | 6,858 | 3,843 | 6,317 | |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 2010 | 590 | 590 | 590 | 590 | 590 | 590 | ||
2030 | 695 | 698 | 698 | 678 | 702 | 738 | 702 | 739 | |
2050 | 746 | 756 | 752 | 696 | 758 | 865 | 728 | 838 | |
2100 | 682 | 709 | 693 | 520 | 684 | 1,094 | 558 | 902 | |
Burkina Faso | 2010 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||
2030 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 25 | 29 | |
2050 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 33 | 38 | 46 | 33 | 51 | |
2100 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 37 | 53 | 81 | 35 | 160 | |
Cameroon | 2010 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | ||
2030 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 35 | |
2050 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 33 | 37 | 40 | 57 | |
2100 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 29 | 36 | 49 | 44 | 145 | |
Chad | 2010 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||
2030 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 23 | |
2050 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 43 | |
2100 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 33 | 44 | 29 | 144 | |
Egypt | 2010 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | ||
2030 | 103 | 103 | 106 | 103 | 107 | 112 | 111 | 123 | |
2050 | 116 | 116 | 122 | 115 | 126 | 142 | 130 | 174 | |
2100 | 114 | 114 | 126 | 100 | 134 | 202 | 120 | 345 | |
Ethiopia | 2010 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | ||
2030 | 115 | 118 | 118 | 119 | 124 | 131 | 128 | 148 | |
2050 | 136 | 141 | 141 | 143 | 159 | 183 | 153 | 228 | |
2100 | 147 | 155 | 155 | 142 | 190 | 284 | 124 | 445 | |
Ghana | 2010 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | ||
2030 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 38 | 35 | 39 | |
2050 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 41 | 47 | 55 | 43 | 58 | |
2100 | 43 | 46 | 47 | 41 | 58 | 91 | 40 | 128 | |
India | 2010 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,225 | ||
2030 | 1,461 | 1,468 | 1,489 | 1,457 | 1,521 | 1,608 | 1,448 | 1,605 | |
2050 | 1,586 | 1,596 | 1,633 | 1,543 | 1,715 | 1,982 | 1,472 | 1,978 | |
2100 | 1,378 | 1,390 | 1,460 | 1,131 | 1,569 | 2,687 | 954 | 2,739 | |
Iraq | 2010 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | ||
2030 | 47 | 47 | 48 | 47 | 50 | 55 | 51 | 57 | |
2050 | 58 | 59 | 62 | 59 | 68 | 85 | 71 | 97 | |
2100 | 66 | 67 | 74 | 62 | 89 | 169 | 88 | 284 | |
Kenya | 2010 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||
2030 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 59 | 61 | 66 | 62 | 69 | |
2050 | 72 | 75 | 78 | 73 | 80 | 95 | 81 | 111 | |
2100 | 80 | 86 | 93 | 75 | 98 | 157 | 87 | 268 | |
Madagascar | 2010 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | ||
2030 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 34 | 38 | |
2050 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 45 | 52 | 46 | 65 | |
2100 | 40 | 41 | 43 | 38 | 59 | 89 | 56 | 187 | |
Malawi | 2010 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | ||
2030 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 25 | 28 | |
2050 | 32 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 41 | 48 | 35 | 51 | |
2100 | 39 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 68 | 109 | 43 | 159 | |
Mali | 2010 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | ||
2030 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 29 | |
2050 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 34 | 56 | |
2100 | 34 | 35 | 38 | 35 | 48 | 66 | 38 | 201 | |
Mozambique | 2010 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||
2030 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 39 | 44 | |
2050 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 78 | |
2100 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 38 | 50 | 68 | 59 | 240 | |
Nepal | 2010 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | ||
2030 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 31 | 35 | |
2050 | 46 | 46 | 48 | 45 | 51 | 62 | 30 | 42 | |
2100 | 46 | 47 | 49 | 40 | 55 | 102 | 14 | 49 | |
Niger | 2010 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||
2030 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 38 | |
2050 | 35 | 37 | 38 | 41 | 51 | 63 | 54 | 90 | |
2100 | 43 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 98 | 161 | 78 | 524 | |
Nigeria | 2010 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 158 | ||
2030 | 244 | 247 | 253 | 243 | 253 | 268 | 247 | 277 | |
2050 | 332 | 344 | 363 | 333 | 371 | 435 | 313 | 478 | |
2100 | 439 | 478 | 549 | 439 | 576 | 879 | 326 | 1,494 | |
Pakistan | 2010 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | ||
2030 | 224 | 225 | 229 | 224 | 237 | 255 | 232 | 258 | |
2050 | 248 | 251 | 261 | 249 | 286 | 344 | 265 | 359 | |
2100 | 235 | 241 | 260 | 212 | 314 | 551 | 209 | 629 | |
Philippines | 2010 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | ||
2030 | 117 | 118 | 120 | 117 | 122 | 131 | 117 | 130 | |
2050 | 129 | 129 | 136 | 127 | 141 | 170 | 127 | 172 | |
2100 | 123 | 124 | 137 | 107 | 147 | 251 | 95 | 295 | |
Senegal | 2010 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | ||
2030 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | |
2050 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 42 | |
2100 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 33 | 60 | 41 | 127 | |
Uganda | 2010 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | ||
2030 | 55 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 57 | 66 | |
2050 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 79 | 93 | 113 | 79 | 123 | |
2100 | 90 | 98 | 108 | 104 | 154 | 242 | 89 | 416 | |
United Republic of Tanzania | 2010 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | ||
2030 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 73 | 78 | 78 | 87 | |
2050 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 88 | 102 | 120 | 112 | 162 | |
2100 | 92 | 96 | 102 | 98 | 141 | 212 | 147 | 546 |
Data are from various sources. Bold italic numbers refer to empirical starting data.
Fertility scenario: SDG1 and SDG2 are 20% lower than SSP2. SDG3 is 10% lower than SSP2. SSP3 is 20% higher than SSP2, and SSP1 is 20% lower than SSP2.