Table 3. Model performance for 1 week (top) and 2 week estimates (bottom), as assessed by Mean Square Error of Prediction.
| 1 Week estimate | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52RC | 52WC | 52RS | 52WS | 104RC | 104WC | 104RS | 104WS | 156RC | 156WC | 156RS | 156WS | |
| Gonococcal infection | 1.183 | 1.237 | 1.212 | 1.229 | 1.181 | 1.301 | 1.274 | 1.368 | 1.268 | 1.340 | 1.356 | 1.358 |
| Varicella zoster (Shingles) | 0.970 | 1.105 | 0.840 | 0.850 | 0.907 | 0.964 | 0.946 | 0.937 | 0.954 | 1.008 | 0.967 | 0.976 |
| Pneumococcal disease (invasive) | 0.478 | 0.510 | 0.523 | 0.548 | 0.278 | 0.347 | 0.564 | 0.376 | 0.420 | 0.396 | 0.435 | 0.437 |
| Ross River virus infection | 0.394 | 0.542 | 0.465 | 0.514 | 0.365 | 0.537 | 0.351 | 0.478 | 0.289 | 0.288 | 0.290 | 0.288 |
| Pertussis | 1.418 | 1.394 | 1.447 | 1.416 | 2.053 | 1.659 | 2.206 | 2.118 | 2.299 | 2.265 | 2.240 | 2.189 |
| Chlamydial infection | 1.089 | 1.019 | 0.983 | 0.968 | 0.832 | 0.789 | 0.832 | 0.789 | 0.847 | 0.826 | 0.847 | 0.826 |
| Varicella zoster (unspecified) | 0.771 | 0.764 | 0.830 | 0.845 | 0.892 | 0.942 | 0.883 | 0.909 | 0.994 | 0.957 | 1.014 | 1.014 |
| Varicella zoster (Chickenpox) | 0.862 | 0.879 | 0.746 | 0.758 | 0.773 | 0.805 | 0.760 | 0.760 | 0.875 | 0.926 | 0.884 | 0.861 |
| Cryptosporidiosis | 1.031 | 1.050 | 1.071 | 1.089 | 1.048 | 1.049 | ||||||
| Barmah Forest virus infection | 1.527 | 1.520 | 1.072 | 1.249 | 1.188 | 1.214 | 1.201 | 1.267 | 1.180 | 1.189 | 1.197 | 1.203 |
| Dengue virus infection | 1.362 | 1.748 | 1.355 | 1.417 | 1.220 | 1.263 | 1.149 | 1.177 | 1.101 | 1.110 | 1.334 | 1.342 |
| Influenza (laboratory confirmed) | 0.425 | 0.463 | 0.406 | 0.438 | 0.461 | 0.485 | 0.461 | 0.490 | 0.718 | 0.681 | 0.915 | 0.922 |
| 2 Week estimate | ||||||||||||
| Gonococcal infection | 1.213 | 1.145 | 1.240 | 1.217 | 1.231 | 1.235 | 1.306 | 1.181 | 1.317 | 1.266 | 1.367 | 1.267 |
| Varicella zoster (Shingles) | 1.015 | 1.071 | 0.846 | 0.820 | 0.903 | 0.907 | 0.950 | 0.918 | 0.918 | 1.020 | 0.979 | 0.966 |
| Pneumococcal disease (invasive) | 0.388 | 0.496 | 0.529 | 0.473 | 0.311 | 0.374 | 0.577 | 0.454 | 0.403 | 0.462 | 0.446 | 0.495 |
| Ross River virus infection | 0.425 | 0.449 | 0.439 | 0.452 | 0.364 | 0.465 | 0.350 | 0.378 | 0.293 | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.304 |
| Pertussis | 1.575 | 1.562 | 1.594 | 1.571 | 2.166 | 1.922 | 2.399 | 2.313 | 2.453 | 2.436 | 2.397 | 2.378 |
| Chlamydial infection | 1.052 | 1.103 | 0.992 | 1.060 | 0.856 | 0.991 | 0.856 | 0.991 | 0.884 | 0.948 | 0.884 | 0.948 |
| Varicella zoster (unspecified) | 0.886 | 0.813 | 0.869 | 0.878 | 0.951 | 0.854 | 0.929 | 0.854 | 1.034 | 0.980 | 1.046 | 0.995 |
| Varicella zoster (Chickenpox) | 0.862 | 0.771 | 0.768 | 0.789 | 0.832 | 0.930 | 0.769 | 0.781 | 0.969 | 1.060 | 0.923 | 0.908 |
| Cryptosporidiosis | 1.092 | 1.098 | 1.089 | 1.096 | 1.058 | 1.058 | ||||||
| Barmah Forest virus infection | 1.643 | 1.677 | 1.129 | 1.257 | 1.202 | 1.265 | 1.221 | 1.249 | 1.204 | 1.200 | 1.221 | 1.222 |
| Dengue virus infection | 1.373 | 1.527 | 1.335 | 1.344 | 1.269 | 1.277 | 1.178 | 1.175 | 1.172 | 1.147 | 1.341 | 1.309 |
| Influenza (laboratory confirmed) | 0.473 | 0.464 | 0.428 | 0.420 | 0.490 | 0.473 | 0.501 | 0.481 | 0.769 | 0.734 | 0.966 | 0.966 |
The highest performing models for each disease are indicated in bold. Model characteristics are described in Table 4.