Table 3.
Estimated effects of weight loss on risk of death, Nurses’ Health Study (1982–2008) using a minimum latent period of 6 years
| Intervention | 26-year risk under intervention (%) a |
Population risk ratio |
Population risk difference |
Cumulative percent intervened on b |
Average percent intervened on c |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural course, no intervention | 16.3 (16.1, 17.0) | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maintain BMI at baseline level | 17.5 (17.3, 18.2) | 1.08 (1.05, 1.09) | −1.2 (−1.6, −0.9) | 99 | 54 |
| Maintain BMI at baseline level if not intractably confounded d |
16.5 (16.4, 17.2) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) | −0.2 (−0.5, −0.1) | 59 | 32 |
| Lose 5% of BMI each period if above 25 kg/m2 |
16.6 (16.4, 17.3) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | −0.3 (−0.1, −0.6) | 73 | 53 |
| Lose 5% of BMI each period if above 25 kg/m2and not intractably confounded d |
16.3 (16.2, 17.0) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | −0.04 (−0.1, 0) | 42 | 33 |
| Lose 10% of BMI each period if above 25 kg/m2and not intractably confounded d |
16.3 (16.2, 17.0) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | −0.05 (−0.1, 0) | 42 | 32 |
| Lose 10% of BMI each period if above 23 kg/m2and not intractably confounded d |
16.5 (16.4, 17.2) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | −0.3 (−0.2, −0.4) | 58 | 44 |
There were 9202 deaths among 73,318 eligible women after 1.5 million person-years of follow-up. The observed 26-year risk of death was 15.58% (95% CI 15.56, 15.60).
The proportion of individuals that were intervened on in any period
The average proportion of individuals intervened on in each 2-year period, averaged over follow-up
Intractably confounded subgroup included women 70 years old or older and those who had chronic heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary embolism, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, gout, systemic lupus erythematosus, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, emphysema, depression, Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.