Table 4.

Sensitivity analyses for the estimated effect of weight loss ^a on risk of coronary heart disease, Nurses’ Health Study (1982–2008) using a minimum latent period of 6 years

Sensitivity analysis	Cumulative risk under no intervention (%)	Cumulative risk under intervention (%)	Population risk ratio	Cumulative percent intervened on b	Average percent intervened on c
Including only women <49 years old at baseline	2.7 (2.4, 2.9)	2.7 (2.4, 2.9)	1.02 (0.99, 1.04)	54	39
Including only never smokers	3.7 (3.4, 3.9)	3.7 (3.4, 3.9)	1.00 (0.99, 1.01)	46	37
Including only those with intentional weight loss in 1992	4.2 (3.9, 4.5)	4.2 (3.9, 4.5)	1.00 (1.00, 1.01)	38	30
Changing the definition of frailty to >65 year old instead of >70	5.1 (4.9, 5.4)	5.1 (4.9, 5.4)	1.00 (1.00, 1.00)	33	25
Starting the follow-up in 1978 and ending in 2010 d	6.0 (5.7, 6.1)	6.0 (5.7, 6.2)	1.00 (0.98, 1.02)	81e	54
Using only the first 16 years of follow-up	2.2 (2.1, 2.4)	2.3 (2.1, 2.4)	1.01 (1.00, 1.02)	39	31
Modeling BMI as the last variable in the set of models	5.1 (4.9, 5.3)	5.1 (4.9, 5.3)	1.00 (1.00, 1.01)	44	34
Effect of weight gain (gain 5% of BMI each period if below 30kg/m2)	4.6 (4.4, 4.8)	4.6 (4.4, 4.8)	1.00 (0.98, 1.01)	69	63
Assigning a shorter lag time (of 2 years) for diabetes, versus 6 years for other chronic diseases	3.7 (3.6, 3.9)	3.8 (3.6, 3.9)	1.00 (1.00, 1.01)	41	31

^aLose 5% of BMI every 2 years if above 25 kg/m² and not intractably confounded, as defined in footnote d of Table 2.

^bThe proportion of individuals that were intervened on in any period

^cThe average proportion of individuals intervened on in each 2-year period, averaged over follow-up

^dThis analysis only included models for CHD and death and one model for time-varying BMI which included baseline covariates (see eTable 1) as information for other time-varying covariates are not available in 1978.

^eThis model has a much higher proportion of participants intervened in as the intervention cannot be restricted to those without intractable confounding.