TABLE 3.
Visit 2 (1990–92) | Visit 4 (1996–98) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||
Outcome | ADA fasting glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/L | WHO fasting glucose 6.1–6.9 mmol/L | ADA HbA1c 39–46mmol/mol | IEC HbA1c 42–46mmol/mol | ADA fasting glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/L | WHO fasting glucose 6.1–6.9 mmol/L | ADA/WHO 2-hour glucose 7.8–11.0 mmol/L |
Incident diabetes | |||||||
Sensitivity | 0.73 (0.70, 0.76) | 0.41 (0.37, 0.44) | 0.52 (0.49, 0.55) | 0.34 (0.31, 0.37) | 0.61 (0.58, 0.64) | 0.28 (0.26, 0.31) | 0.55 (0.51, 0.58) |
Specificity | 0.63 (0.62, 0.64) | 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) | 0.83 (0.83, 0.84) | 0.93 (0.92, 0.93) | 0.74 (0.73, 0.75) | 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) |
PPV | 0.15 (0.14, 0.16) | 0.28 (0.26, 0.31) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.24) | 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) | 0.28 (0.26, 0.30) | 0.44 (0.40, 0.48) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.23) |
NPV | 0.96 (0.96, 0.97) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.90) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) |
+LR | 1.98 (1.89, 2.08) | 4.41 (3.97, 4.89) | 3.14 (2.90, 3.39) | 4.81 (4.28, 5.41) | 2.34 (2.19, 2.50) | 4.84 (4.19, 5.58) | 1.96 (1.82, 2.12) |
-LR | 0.43 (0.38, 0.48) | 0.66 (0.64, 0.69) | 0.58 (0.54, 0.62) | 0.71 (0.68, 0.74) | 0.52 (0.48, 0.57) | 0.76 (0.73, 0.79) | 0.63 (0.58, 0.68) |
| |||||||
Chronic kidney disease | |||||||
Sensitivity | 0.48 (0.43, 0.53) | 0.18 (0.14, 0.23) | 0.31 (0.27, 0.37) | 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) | 0.37 (0.31, 0.44) | 0.15 (0.11, 0.20) | 0.32 (0.26, 0.39) |
Specificity | 0.61 (0.60, 0.61) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) | 0.81 (0.80, 0.82) | 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) | 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) |
PPV | 0.04 (0.04, 0.05) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.07) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) | 0.06 (0.04, 0.08) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) |
NPV | 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) |
+LR | 1.21 (1.08, 1.35) | 1.58 (1.27, 1.98) | 1.64 (1.40, 1.92) | 1.60 (1.24, 2.08) | 1.20 (1.01, 1.42) | 1.72 (1.26, 2.35) | 1.03 (0.85, 1.26) |
-LR | 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) | 0.92 (0.88, 0.97) | 0.85 (0.79, 0.91) | 0.94 (0.90, 0.98) | 0.91 (0.83, 1.01) | 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) | 0.99 (0.90, 1.08) |
| |||||||
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease | |||||||
Sensitivity | 0.47 (0.43, 0.52) | 0.16 (0.13, 0.19) | 0.34 (0.30, 0.39) | 0.18 (0.15, 0.21) | 0.39 (0.34, 0.44) | 0.12 (0.09, 0.16) | 0.32 (0.28, 0.37) |
Specificity | 0.61 (0.60, 0.62) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) | 0.81 (0.81, 0.82) | 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) | 0.91 (0.90, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) |
PPV | 0.06 (0.06, 0.07) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.09) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.12) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.08) | 0.07 (0.06, 0.10) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.07) |
NPV | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.96 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) |
+LR | 1.20 (1.10, 1.32) | 1.36 (1.11, 1.66) | 1.84 (1.63, 2.08) | 2.03 (1.68, 2.45) | 1.25 (1.10, 1.43) | 1.36 (1.03, 1.79) | 1.04 (0.89, 1.21) |
-LR | 0.87 (0.80, 0.94) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.99) | 0.81 (0.76, 0.86) | 0.90 (0.87, 0.94) | 0.89 (0.82, 0.96) | 0.97 (0.93, 1.00) | 0.98 (0.91, 1.06) |
| |||||||
Peripheral arterial disease | |||||||
Sensitivity | 0.54 (0.41, 0.66) | 0.19 (0.11, 0.31) | 0.30 (0.20, 0.43) | 0.14 (0.06, 0.24) | 0.42 (0.29, 0.57) | 0.08 (0.02, 0.19) | 0.37 (0.24, 0.51) |
Specificity | 0.60 (0.59, 0.61) | 0.88 (0.88, 0.89) | 0.81 (0.80, 0.81) | 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) | 0.91 (0.90, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) |
PPV | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) |
NPV | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99, 0.99) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) |
+LR | 1.35 (1.08, 1.69) | 1.66 (1.02, 2.71) | 1.56 (1.08, 2.25) | 1.46 (0.80, 2.69) | 1.36 (0.99, 1.87) | 0.85 (0.33, 2.18) | 1.17 (0.82, 1.68) |
-LR | 0.77 (0.59, 0.99) | 0.91 (0.81, 1.03) | 0.87 (0.74, 1.01) | 0.95 (0.87, 1.05) | 0.84 (0.66, 1.06) | 1.02 (0.94, 1.10) | 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) |
| |||||||
All-cause mortality | |||||||
Sensitivity | 0.46 (0.42, 0.49) | 0.15 (0.12, 0.17) | 0.31 (0.27, 0.35) | 0.16 (0.13, 0.18) | 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) | 0.13 (0.10, 0.15) | 0.33 (0.29, 0.37) |
Specificity | 0.61 (0.60, 0.62) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) | 0.81 (0.81, 0.82) | 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) | 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) |
PPV | 0.08 (0.07, 0.08) | 0.08 (0.07, 0.10) | 0.11 (0.09, 0.12) | 0.11 (0.09, 0.13) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.11) | 0.12 (0.10, 0.15) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.11) |
NPV | 0.94 (0.93, 0.95) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) | 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.92) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) |
+LR | 1.15 (1.06, 1.26) | 1.26 (1.04, 1.53) | 1.65 (1.46, 1.86) | 1.74 (1.45, 2.10) | 1.12 (0.99, 1.25) | 1.43 (1.14, 1.80) | 1.07 (0.95 1.21) |
-LR | 0.90 (0.84, 0.97) | 0.97 (0.94, 1.00) | 0.85 (0.81, 0.90) | 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.89, 1.01) | 0.96 (0.93, 0.99) | 0.97 (0.91, 1.03) |
Abbreviations: ADA, American Diabetes Association; IEC, International Expert Committee; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization; +LR, positive likelihood ratio, -LR, negative likelihood ratio