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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Jan 1.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2016 Nov 16;5(1):34–42. doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(16)30321-7

TABLE 3.

10-year sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio and corresponding 95% confidence intervals of incident clinical outcomes according to different definitions of prediabetes (vs. normoglycemia) at baseline

Visit 2 (1990–92) Visit 4 (1996–98)

Outcome ADA fasting glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/L WHO fasting glucose 6.1–6.9 mmol/L ADA HbA1c 39–46mmol/mol IEC HbA1c 42–46mmol/mol ADA fasting glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/L WHO fasting glucose 6.1–6.9 mmol/L ADA/WHO 2-hour glucose 7.8–11.0 mmol/L
Incident diabetes
 Sensitivity 0.73 (0.70, 0.76) 0.41 (0.37, 0.44) 0.52 (0.49, 0.55) 0.34 (0.31, 0.37) 0.61 (0.58, 0.64) 0.28 (0.26, 0.31) 0.55 (0.51, 0.58)
 Specificity 0.63 (0.62, 0.64) 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) 0.83 (0.83, 0.84) 0.93 (0.92, 0.93) 0.74 (0.73, 0.75) 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) 0.72 (0.71, 0.73)
 PPV 0.15 (0.14, 0.16) 0.28 (0.26, 0.31) 0.22 (0.21, 0.24) 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) 0.28 (0.26, 0.30) 0.44 (0.40, 0.48) 0.21 (0.20, 0.23)
 NPV 0.96 (0.96, 0.97) 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) 0.89 (0.88, 0.90) 0.92 (0.91, 0.93)
 +LR 1.98 (1.89, 2.08) 4.41 (3.97, 4.89) 3.14 (2.90, 3.39) 4.81 (4.28, 5.41) 2.34 (2.19, 2.50) 4.84 (4.19, 5.58) 1.96 (1.82, 2.12)
 -LR 0.43 (0.38, 0.48) 0.66 (0.64, 0.69) 0.58 (0.54, 0.62) 0.71 (0.68, 0.74) 0.52 (0.48, 0.57) 0.76 (0.73, 0.79) 0.63 (0.58, 0.68)

Chronic kidney disease
 Sensitivity 0.48 (0.43, 0.53) 0.18 (0.14, 0.23) 0.31 (0.27, 0.37) 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) 0.37 (0.31, 0.44) 0.15 (0.11, 0.20) 0.32 (0.26, 0.39)
 Specificity 0.61 (0.60, 0.61) 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) 0.81 (0.80, 0.82) 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70)
 PPV 0.04 (0.04, 0.05) 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) 0.05 (0.05, 0.07) 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) 0.06 (0.04, 0.08) 0.03 (0.03, 0.04)
 NPV 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) 0.97 (0.96, 0.97) 0.97 (0.96, 0.97)
 +LR 1.21 (1.08, 1.35) 1.58 (1.27, 1.98) 1.64 (1.40, 1.92) 1.60 (1.24, 2.08) 1.20 (1.01, 1.42) 1.72 (1.26, 2.35) 1.03 (0.85, 1.26)
 -LR 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) 0.92 (0.88, 0.97) 0.85 (0.79, 0.91) 0.94 (0.90, 0.98) 0.91 (0.83, 1.01) 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) 0.99 (0.90, 1.08)

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
 Sensitivity 0.47 (0.43, 0.52) 0.16 (0.13, 0.19) 0.34 (0.30, 0.39) 0.18 (0.15, 0.21) 0.39 (0.34, 0.44) 0.12 (0.09, 0.16) 0.32 (0.28, 0.37)
 Specificity 0.61 (0.60, 0.62) 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) 0.81 (0.81, 0.82) 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) 0.91 (0.90, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70)
 PPV 0.06 (0.06, 0.07) 0.07 (0.06, 0.09) 0.09 (0.08, 0.11) 0.10 (0.08, 0.12) 0.07 (0.06, 0.08) 0.07 (0.06, 0.10) 0.06 (0.05, 0.07)
 NPV 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) 0.96 (0.95, 0.96) 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) 0.95 (0.94, 0.95)
 +LR 1.20 (1.10, 1.32) 1.36 (1.11, 1.66) 1.84 (1.63, 2.08) 2.03 (1.68, 2.45) 1.25 (1.10, 1.43) 1.36 (1.03, 1.79) 1.04 (0.89, 1.21)
 -LR 0.87 (0.80, 0.94) 0.95 (0.92, 0.99) 0.81 (0.76, 0.86) 0.90 (0.87, 0.94) 0.89 (0.82, 0.96) 0.97 (0.93, 1.00) 0.98 (0.91, 1.06)

Peripheral arterial disease
 Sensitivity 0.54 (0.41, 0.66) 0.19 (0.11, 0.31) 0.30 (0.20, 0.43) 0.14 (0.06, 0.24) 0.42 (0.29, 0.57) 0.08 (0.02, 0.19) 0.37 (0.24, 0.51)
 Specificity 0.60 (0.59, 0.61) 0.88 (0.88, 0.89) 0.81 (0.80, 0.81) 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) 0.91 (0.90, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70)
 PPV 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)
 NPV 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99) 0.99 (0.99, 1.00)
 +LR 1.35 (1.08, 1.69) 1.66 (1.02, 2.71) 1.56 (1.08, 2.25) 1.46 (0.80, 2.69) 1.36 (0.99, 1.87) 0.85 (0.33, 2.18) 1.17 (0.82, 1.68)
 -LR 0.77 (0.59, 0.99) 0.91 (0.81, 1.03) 0.87 (0.74, 1.01) 0.95 (0.87, 1.05) 0.84 (0.66, 1.06) 1.02 (0.94, 1.10) 0.92 (0.75, 1.13)

All-cause mortality
 Sensitivity 0.46 (0.42, 0.49) 0.15 (0.12, 0.17) 0.31 (0.27, 0.35) 0.16 (0.13, 0.18) 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) 0.13 (0.10, 0.15) 0.33 (0.29, 0.37)
 Specificity 0.61 (0.60, 0.62) 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) 0.81 (0.81, 0.82) 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70) 0.91 (0.91, 0.92) 0.69 (0.68, 0.70)
 PPV 0.08 (0.07, 0.08) 0.08 (0.07, 0.10) 0.11 (0.09, 0.12) 0.11 (0.09, 0.13) 0.10 (0.08, 0.11) 0.12 (0.10, 0.15) 0.09 (0.08, 0.11)
 NPV 0.94 (0.93, 0.95) 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) 0.94 (0.94, 0.95) 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) 0.92 (0.91, 0.92) 0.92 (0.91, 0.92) 0.92 (0.91, 0.93)
 +LR 1.15 (1.06, 1.26) 1.26 (1.04, 1.53) 1.65 (1.46, 1.86) 1.74 (1.45, 2.10) 1.12 (0.99, 1.25) 1.43 (1.14, 1.80) 1.07 (0.95 1.21)
 -LR 0.90 (0.84, 0.97) 0.97 (0.94, 1.00) 0.85 (0.81, 0.90) 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) 0.95 (0.89, 1.01) 0.96 (0.93, 0.99) 0.97 (0.91, 1.03)

Abbreviations: ADA, American Diabetes Association; IEC, International Expert Committee; HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization; +LR, positive likelihood ratio, -LR, negative likelihood ratio