Fig. 2.

Epidemic dynamics in Mumbai. (A) Model-predicted mean susceptibility in the population [purple band, 95% credible interval (CI)] undergoes seasonal decreases along the course of the epidemic, and the SD of susceptibility in the population (green band, 95% CI) increases as the density of rats with susceptibility lower than one increases. (B) Model-predicted (blue band, 95% CI) and observed (red line) plague mortality cycles seasonally, decreasing as the mean susceptibility in the population decreases. (C) Model-predicted posterior probability density (blue violin plot) and observed (red interval) timing of peak mortality. As a consequence of the evolution of resistance, the timing of annual maxima in plague mortality shifts. Bands and violin plots are part of the range across 2,000 stochastic simulations.