Table S1.

Epidemiological parameters for predictions

Variable	Description	Base case	95% Prediction interval*	Sensitivity range or scenarios	Source
1/σ	Canine rabies incubation period (days)	22.0	19.9, 24.8	—	Ref. 32
1/α	Canine rabies infectious period (days)	3.32	2.82, 3.35	—	Ref. 32
β	Canine rabies transmission rate	0.426	0.423, 0.503	—	Fit (Methods)
ε	Canine vaccine efficacy	100%	—	80%	Ref. 47
ϕ	Canine intervention rate (dogs per year)	0	—	100,000–500,000	Control variable
η	Vaccination coverage in owned dogs before intervention	0.34	0.33, 0.35	—	Ref. 59, p. 26
μ	Canine death rate (years−1)	0.32	0.22, 0.38	—	Ref. 54
♀	Proportion of canine population that is female	0.24	—	0.3; 0.4	Ref. 27
♂	Proportion of canine population that is male	0.76	—	0.7; 0.6	Ref. 27
ρ	Annual pregnancy rate for female dogs	0.475	—	—	Ref. 54
λ	Median litter size	5	—	—	Ref. 26
KO	Carrying capacity, owned dogs (thousands)	950	—	495; 660; 825; 1,155	Ref. 27
KS	Carrying capacity, stray dogs (thousands)	700	—	1,155; 990; 825; 495	Ref. 27
x	Rabies reintroduction rate (rabid dogs per day)	0.25	—	0; 0.125; 0.5	Assumption
Human health outcomes
βH	Humans bitten per rabid dog	0.506	0.443, 0.566	—	Ref. 32
PEP	Historical PEP coverage†	0.446	0.446, 0.513	—	Ref. 59, table 17
p(rab)	Probability of developing rabies without PEP	0.159	0.156, 0.161	—	Refs. 35 and 67

^*Variables without prediction interval use the base case value in all simulations.

^†Posterior distribution for historical (2003) PEP coverage is reported here for completeness. Because the state of Tamil Nadu has specific initiatives to improve PEP access, current PEP coverage values are assumed to be equivalent to current coverage with the diptheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTaP) (Table S3).